I thought it would be useful to provide an update on our death cross rally discussion from a couple of weeks ago. Not sure how I ended up rambling for an hour, but hope you enjoy!
What’s the “Waller Rule,” and what does it have to do with dollar liquidity and your investments?
Following a speech last week by FOMC member Christopher Waller, Andreas Steno Larsen presents what he calls the “Waller Rule,” which suggests that QT will either need to slow or pause if USD reserves become equal to 10-11% of U.S. GDP.
He then breaks down why this potential scenario might be bad news for risk assets in the second half of 2023. Recorded on January 24, 2023.
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#investing #riskmanagement #risk
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Is it the Fed’s real goal to tame inflation or is it truly to tighten financial conditions even further?
With the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth notes that it’s “an extraordinary sight” that “there has never been this much division on the Federal Reserve Board … and yet there seems to be this concerted effort to prevent any dissent from escaping from the Eccles Building.”
The course of QT in 2023 may carry on longer than most expect, and she along with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen discuss whether the Fed may be gearing up to defy markets. Recorded on January 20, 2023.
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Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!
#financialmarkets #monetarypolicy #fed
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Is it the Fed’s real goal to tame inflation or is it truly to tighten financial conditions even further?
With the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth notes that it’s “an extraordinary sight” that “there has never been this much division on the Federal Reserve Board … and yet there seems to be this concerted effort to prevent any dissent from escaping from the Eccles Building.”
The course of QT in 2023 may carry on longer than most expect, and she along with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen discuss whether the Fed may be gearing up to defy markets. Recorded on January 20, 2023.
CHAPTERS:
1 A Divided Federal Reserve Board and Its Curious Lack of Dissent 00:59
2 Will the Fed Defy Markets? 06:59
3 What Is the Current Assessment of Economic Growth in the Fed? 0:11:39
4 The U.S. Employment Picture 0:17:17
5 Is Powell Trying to Break the Back of the Fed Put? 0:24:18
6 Tighter for Longer on One Hand, Dollar Liquidity Injections on the Other 0:31:43
7 Conclusion 0:41:22
8 The Takeaways 0:46:33
👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision — get started here: https://rvtv.io/membership
Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!
#monetarypolicy #financialmarkets #fed
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Will the old adage “sell in May and go away” apply in 2023?
Andreas Steno Larsen examines how liquidity trends are turning negative and macro fundamentals are weakening alongside an equity rally that may be exhausting. Find out what comes next on Steno’s Signals.
CHAPTERS:
1 Examining The First Republic Bank Deal By JP Morgan 01:55
2 The Global Liquidity Outlook Is Worsening 09:06
3 Viewer Questions 0:23:06
👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision — get started here: https://rvtv.io/membership
Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!
#financialmarkets #liquidity #realvision
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Let’s jump into the equityverse and provide an update on the S&P 500! In this video we take a look at the bear market within the context of prior bear markets. This way, we can better prepare for various outcomes.
Let’s jump into the equityverse and provide an update on the S&P 500! In this video we take a look at the bear market within the context of prior bear markets. This way, we can better prepare for various outcomes.
The job market is finally starting to soften up with the most recent report from the US Department of Labor. As job openings go down, it makes sense to assume that unemployment will start to rise. As that happens, we will likely find ourselves in a recession where the #Fed will be forced to do something. While we are not yet at that point, these are important considerations to think about with regards to managing your risk.
The probability of a 50 bps or 75 bps rate hike in November continues to be all over the place. Investors remained somewhat perplexed about just how far the #Fed will go to curb #inflation. In this video we talk about general expectations with regards to the #Fed as we head into the end of the year, and how it could affect risk assets like #Bitcoin, #SPX, #NDQ, and #DJI.
