Steno's Signals: Liquidity Will Soon Be Drier than a Martini



Will the old adage “sell in May and go away” apply in 2023?

Andreas Steno Larsen examines how liquidity trends are turning negative and macro fundamentals are weakening alongside an equity rally that may be exhausting. Find out what comes next on Steno’s Signals.

CHAPTERS:
1 Examining The First Republic Bank Deal By JP Morgan 01:55
2 The Global Liquidity Outlook Is Worsening 09:06
3 Viewer Questions 0:23:06

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#financialmarkets #liquidity #realvision

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Understanding The Private Debt Market



The private debt market has grown substantially since the Global Financial Crisis, which triggered regulatory reforms that restricted traditional banks’ lending practices.

Into the breach have stepped non-bank lenders, filling the gap and then some. What was once only a niche has grown to $1.2 trillion in assets under management and is tracking to $1.5 trillion by 2025, according to investment data firm Prequin.

Nelson Chu, the founder and CEO of private credit platform Percent, explains to Andreas Steno-Larsen how his startup facilitates investor access to private credit and business and consumer access to private capital.

This is a must-see interview for those interested in an under explored alternative asset class. Recorded on July 6, 2022.

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#privatedebt #debt #debtmarket

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Full Episode: This Is The Decade Of The Bear



Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months.

And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress.

The narrative around inflation will change quickly because “the Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.” Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.

#sp500 #equities #wallstreet

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Future Prices: How Prepared Is Europe For The Winter?



If people in Europe don’t reduce their energy consumption this winter, companies will have to – and that means a big spike in unemployment, according to Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Switzerland-based commodity investment firm Burggraben Holding AG.

Stahel says Russia’s reported maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline is just an excuse to stop supplying Europe, and the consequences of that action will be severe.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Stahel explains why the continent is ill-prepared for Vladimir Putin’s energy brinkmanship and outlines the steps it should take, including restoring nuclear energy capabilities, to counter his belligerence. Recorded on July 14, 2022.

Be sure to check out Stahel’s full report, including slides not featured in the interview, in our Reports section on our website.

#energymarket #energysector #europe

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How To Be a Winning Trader w/ Brent Donnelly



Brent Donnelly has spent most of his life in markets. He got into forex while working for top-tier banks in the U.S.

He traded the dot-com bubble with his own money. And he was at Lehman Brothers when it collapsed. In this special episode of My Life in 4 Trades, Brent shares with guest host Andreas Steno Larsen his perspective on trading, including the big regrets that became some of his best lessons.

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#tradingstrategy #tradingeducation #tradingtips

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Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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More Fuel For The Inflation Fire



The jury is out on whether massive government spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to today’s inflation.

However, as politicians stare down a potential recession, they face a critical dilemma: by stimulating growth will they also further stimulate prices?

Dario Perkins, the managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the consequences of the European energy crisis, including a vicious cycle of expansionary fiscal policy that would only exacerbate existing systemic problems. Perkins also shares his thoughts on the “romance” with Modern Monetary Theory and describes what he considers a “true” recession. Recorded on August 18, 2022.

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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This is What Will Happen To Europe's Energy Emergency



It’s no secret Europe’s energy emergency is as dire as ever with fall and winter approaching.

Already facing potentially years of supply rationing, European Union authorities are floating proposals to separate electricity prices from natural gas prices. It’s enough to force countries like Germany to reconsider decisions to mothball nuclear power plants and to keep them operating beyond 2022. Are we on the verge of a nuclear renaissance that will free Europe from Russian natural gas and other external suppliers? Mark Nelson, the managing director of the Radiant Energy Group, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for an in-depth conversation about the energy crisis and the factors contributing to Europe’s predicament. Mark addresses lingering fears and questions about nuclear power production and makes the case for the immediate revival of existing capacity and commencement of new projects as well. Recorded on August 22, 2022.
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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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How a Nuclear Renaissance Can Save Europe



RV Essential: 59% OFF for $99/year 🍻 It’s more affordable than a craft beer a month! 👉 https://rvtv.io/3BDEzwr

It’s no secret Europe’s energy emergency is as dire as ever with fall and winter approaching. Already facing potentially years of supply rationing, European Union authorities are floating proposals to separate electricity prices from natural gas prices. It’s enough to force countries like Germany to reconsider decisions to mothball nuclear power plants and to keep them operating beyond 2022.

Are we on the verge of a nuclear renaissance that will free Europe from Russian natural gas and other external suppliers? Mark Nelson, the managing director of the Radiant Energy Group, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for an in-depth conversation about the energy crisis and the factors contributing to Europe’s predicament.

Mark addresses lingering fears and questions about nuclear power production and makes the case for the immediate revival of existing capacity and commencement of new projects as well. Recorded on August 22, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:01:21 What’s Your Take on the European Energy Crisis Now?
00:07:59 What Is the Political Backdrop that Led to This Crisis?
00:12:31 How the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident Changed Europe
00:21:58 What’s Happening at France’s Nuclear Plants?
00:28:06 Is Nuclear Really the Solution to Europe’s Energy Issues?
00:36:17 What Do We Do About Nuclear Waste?
00:42:06 Will There Be a Revival in Nuclear Energy?
00:53:25 The Takeaways

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Full Episode: Understanding The Private Debt Market



The private debt market has grown substantially since the Global Financial Crisis, which triggered regulatory reforms that restricted traditional banks’ lending practices.

Into the breach have stepped non-bank lenders, filling the gap and then some. What was once only a niche has grown to $1.2 trillion in assets under management and is tracking to $1.5 trillion by 2025, according to investment data firm Prequin.

Nelson Chu, the founder, and CEO of private credit platform Percent explains to Andreas Steno-Larsen how his startup facilitates investor access to private credit and business and consumer access to private capital.

This is a must-see interview for those interested in an under-explored alternative asset class. Recorded on July 6, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:38 Where You Start Isn’t Where You End
00:03:55 Understanding the Private Debt Market
00:10:30 Private Debt Performance and Returns
00:16:31 The Supply Side of Private Debt
00:21:58 How Will Private Debt Fare During a Recession?
00:25:02 Pros and Cons of Buying Private Debt
00:28:11 Private Debt in the Crypto Space
00:30:59 How To Access Private Debt Market
00:35:52 Diversifying Via Geography
00:37:58 What Happens if There is a Real Regime Shift in Rates?
00:39:22 Private Debt Still Has a Positive Spread to Inflation

#privatedebt #debt #debtmarket

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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The Land Of The Rising Yen?



The Japanese yen was the worst-performing major currency against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2022, as investors worldwide, from global macro hedge funds to Japanese retail day-traders, piled into an extremely crowded “hawkish Fed versus dovish BoJ policy divergence” trade: Short the yen.

July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting might have changed all that. Real Vision’s Tokyo-based global markets editor Weston Nakamura made a “long JPY” call heading into that FOMC meeting.

In a comprehensive follow-up commentary, Weston explains the mechanics behind the strongest rally in the yen since March 2020 by analyzing yen futures and options activity, shares additional details on shorting the euro against the yen, and forecasts yen action for the second half of the year.

See Weston’s Twitter thread from Friday, July 29, on the yen short squeeze, and follow him on Twitter @acrossthespread for real-time market commentary. Watch Weston’s previous video on the first half of 2022, “How the Bank of Japan Blew Up Markets in 2022,” here: https://youtu.be/_0a9DuqhVvU.

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