The Surprising Truth About Falling Consumer Prices



Andreas Steno Larsen breaks down the most important themes in global macro. This week it’s falling inflation.

In the inaugural episode of Stenos Signals, Andreas walks us through why inflation will fall fast in the first quarter of this year, why that might not be a broad-based sign to buy equities— especially in the energy sector— and tells us how he’s setting up to trade it. Recorded on January 3rd, 2022.

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#macro #inflationrate #inflation

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Steno's Signals: How China's Reopening May Affect Commodities & Equities



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China bids adieu to zero-COVID this week after its borders reopened, and investors are flocking in to capitalize on these long-awaited trading opportunities.

Andreas takes a step back to examine the Chinese economy as it currently stands and digs into how the reopening may affect prices across various asset classes. Recorded on January 10, 2023.

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#chinaeconomy #chinanews #financialmarkets

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Dollar Liquidity Incoming: How Will It Move Markets?



When the U.S. breaches its debt limit, the Treasury will be forced to inject new liquidity into financial markets using various accounting gimmicks.

Andreas shares how this extra cash flow could affect various asset classes and explores the potential multiple and ugly ramifications of this nightmare scenario. Recorded on January 17, 2023.

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#dollar #macro #usdollar

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Why You Shouldn't Get Too Comfortable Holding Risk Assets



What’s the “Waller Rule,” and what does it have to do with dollar liquidity and your investments?

Following a speech last week by FOMC member Christopher Waller, Andreas Steno Larsen presents what he calls the “Waller Rule,” which suggests that QT will either need to slow or pause if USD reserves become equal to 10-11% of U.S. GDP.

He then breaks down why this potential scenario might be bad news for risk assets in the second half of 2023. Recorded on January 24, 2023.

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#investing #riskmanagement #risk

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth: Will the Fed Defy Markets?



Is it the Fed’s real goal to tame inflation or is it truly to tighten financial conditions even further?

With the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth notes that it’s “an extraordinary sight” that “there has never been this much division on the Federal Reserve Board … and yet there seems to be this concerted effort to prevent any dissent from escaping from the Eccles Building.”

The course of QT in 2023 may carry on longer than most expect, and she along with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen discuss whether the Fed may be gearing up to defy markets. Recorded on January 20, 2023.

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#financialmarkets #monetarypolicy #fed

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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New Dollar Liquidity Set to Make a Splash in Markets?



🔥 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 Newsletter: Understand What’s Moving Markets — In Minutes! http://www.realvision.com/rvdb

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the U.S. will breach its debt ceiling.

When the U.S. breaches its debt limit, the Treasury will be forced to inject new liquidity into financial markets using various accounting gimmicks.

Andreas shares how this extra cash flow could affect various asset classes and explores the potential multiple and ugly ramifications of this nightmare scenario. Recorded on January 17, 2023.

TIMESTAMPS
1 A Look Back at Past Weeks 00:59
2 Dollar Liquidity Incoming: How Will It Move Markets? 02:48
3 Conclusion 0:16:27

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#useconomy #dollar #debt

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Fed vs. Markets: Who Will Prevail? w/ Danielle DiMartino Booth



Is it the Fed’s real goal to tame inflation or is it truly to tighten financial conditions even further?

With the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth notes that it’s “an extraordinary sight” that “there has never been this much division on the Federal Reserve Board … and yet there seems to be this concerted effort to prevent any dissent from escaping from the Eccles Building.”

The course of QT in 2023 may carry on longer than most expect, and she along with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen discuss whether the Fed may be gearing up to defy markets. Recorded on January 20, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 A Divided Federal Reserve Board and Its Curious Lack of Dissent 00:59
2 Will the Fed Defy Markets? 06:59
3 What Is the Current Assessment of Economic Growth in the Fed? 0:11:39
4 The U.S. Employment Picture 0:17:17
5 Is Powell Trying to Break the Back of the Fed Put? 0:24:18
6 Tighter for Longer on One Hand, Dollar Liquidity Injections on the Other 0:31:43
7 Conclusion 0:41:22
8 The Takeaways 0:46:33

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#monetarypolicy #financialmarkets #fed

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Is Inflation Actually Slowing in the US Now?



🔥 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 Newsletter: Understand What’s Moving Markets — In Minutes! http://www.realvision.com/rvdb

The latest CPI report gives investors pause over whether the U.S. is actually experiencing disinflation.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index report for January showed that inflation cooled off only slightly — less than most economists’ expectations. Andreas Steno Larsen dives deeper into the numbers to find out whether U.S. inflation is, in fact, retreating.

He also takes a step back to look at liquidity on a global scale as the Bank of Japan picks Kazuo Ueda to become its next governor. Recorded on February 15, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 Is Inflation Still Slowing? 00:41
2 Has Global Liquidity Bottomed Already? 0:14:46
3 Conclusion 0:22:26

🔥 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 Newsletter: Understand What’s Moving Markets — In Minutes! http://www.realvision.com/rvdb

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#inflationrate #inflation #cpi

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Steno Signals: Why You Can't Fully Trust Recent U.S. Data



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Watch this to find out how 50 percent of the current rebound was created in a spreadsheet.

Recent data has shown the consumer made a comeback in the first month of the year, but as Andreas Steno Larsen reveals, that may be only half true.

Watch this edition of Steno’s Signals to find out why seasonal adjustments may be sending misleading signs about how the economy is actually faring. Recorded on February 21, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 The Most Important Chart in Global 01:01
2 Is the Comeback Real or Fake?  04:58
3 Case Studies 08:23
4 Pullback in Liquidity Trends 0:15:46
5 A Warning from Andreas 0:21:15

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#financialmarkets #macro #CPI

About Real Vision™:
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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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John Ciampaglia: Pay Attention to Copper & Critical Minerals



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How the energy transition is fueling inflation and the potential for uranium.
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As central banks battle to bring inflation under control, there may be a further inflationary tailwind linked to the energy transition in the coming years.

Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia outlines his concerns for the global energy complex, why he expects an era of higher commodity prices, and the potential for uranium to provide a sustainable solution to our energy issues.

Andreas Steno Larsen concludes by providing his takeaways on this critical theme. Recorded on March 8, 2023.

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