Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions



During a period where many of us have decided to become armchair economists (myself included), I thought it would be somewhat useful to dive into some larger trends shaping in the current macroeconomic landscape. We can see some inversions on the yield curve, inflation remains high, and the #Fed will likely have to continue raising rates into a slowing economy due to rampant #inflation. Of course anything can happen, but the outlook on some of these metrics can be useful in navigating these market conditions.

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Cardano: Searching for a Cycle Bottom



The price of #ADA (#Cardano) continues its search for a major bottom. Of course, so far #ADA continues its slow bleed pretty much on an ongoing basis. In this video we compare the current #ADA bear market with the one in 2018. We also take a look at the valuation of #ADA against both #BTC and #ETH. What do you think of this analysis on #ADA? Let me know in the comments!

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Upcoming FOMC: Hawkish or Dovish?



The next FOMC by the Federal Reserve is coming up on November 2nd. The #Fed of course will be watched closely to identify if there has been any change in their ongoing policies. In this video we talk about the likelihood of various interest rate hikes, and compare that to #inflation data. How high do you think the #Fed will raise interest rates? Let me know in the comments!

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Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 29)



Time for an update on our #Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics series, which is actually an analysis on the total #cryptocurrency market capitalization by comparing it to our fair value logarithmic regression trend line. No model will tell us exactly when/where the entire asset class will peak, but hopefully it gives us some insight into what is realistically possible. Where do you think the price of #Bitcoin is headed? Let me know in the comments!

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FOMC Aftermath



Now that the November #FOMC is behind us, what can we expect? In this video we discuss some key takeaways from the meeting and general expectations for risk assets under stricter monetary conditions. Will the #Fed win in their fight against inflation?

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S&P 500: A Pretty Average Bear Market



While this #SP500 bear market has been “unbearable” for many, I contend that so far the 2022 bear market is pretty average bear market. We look at comparisons in history to show us what could happen, not to show us what has to happen. In this video we look at best and worst case scenarios as a function of time (to the extent that each bear market lasted). What do you think of this video? Let me know in the comments!

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Unemployment Update: Implications for the Fed



With the most recent report on unemployment, we can see that it ticked up slightly last month. However, wage inflation persists and the US economy remains strong. How will this affect the #Fed and risk assets moving forward? Let us discuss!

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Bitcoin: Bulls Vs. Bears



0:00 – Intro: Bear vs Bull Case
1:59 – Bullish Indicators
6:45 – Bearish Indicators
12:26 – Log. Reg.🌈Rainbow
16:30 – MVRV-Z Score
19:33 – Hash Ribbons
20:38 – Supply in Profit or Loss
22:30 – Balanced Price
26:11 – Pi Cycle Bottom/Top
28:11 – Relative Strength Index (RSI)
29:36 – Golden/Death Crosses
30:33 – Running ROI
31:43 – Gap🕳Boys
34:38 – Diminishing Returns/Losses
36:31 – ROI After Cycle Peak
38:34 – Accumulation
40:02 – Moving Averages
42:03 – Puell Multiple
43:23 – Risk, Fear and Greed
44:25 – ITC Premium Website✔️
45:40 – Hash Rate
47:18 – More Points for the Bulls
49:00 – Into The Macroverse
53:09 – Bottom Thoughts
55:12 – Closing Thoughts

The battle of the #Bitcoin bulls and bears rages on – who will be right? In this video we go through a lot of indicators discussing evidence for both the bulls and the bears. Hopefully you find this information valuable as you navigate the cryptoverse!

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Bitcoin On-Chain Risk



0:00 – Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
1:14 – Table of Contents
1:46 – MVRV-Z Score
3:21 – Puell Multiple
4:36 – MVRV
5:05 – mCTC
5:56 – Transaction Fees
6:25 – MCTC
6:58 – Terminal Price
7:22 – Normalize Between Zero & One
8:20 – Total On-Chain Risk
11:59 – Major Bottoms
14:31 – ITC Premium
15:16 – Summary
15:59 – RHODL Ratio & Supply in P/L
17:15 – Closing Thoughts

#Bitcoin provides us the luxury of on-chain analysis. Given this luxury, let us look at various on-chain indicators developed through the years to create an on-chain risk metric. This should provide insight into current price action, and what is the main risk at any given time. What do you think of this #BTC analysis using on-chain data? Let me know in the comments!

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Bitcoin: The Lower Low



The price of #Bitcoin has now put in a lower low! This was always a likely outcome, as we discussed the idea of capitulation coming into November. Hopefully these videos have been valuable to you in navigating the cryptoverse.

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