Let’s provide an outlook on the #S&P500. Previously, we mentioned that Yellen issuing shorter duration than the market was expecting was short-term bullish for both stocks and bonds. The market has seen a nice move to the upside since then. Let’s now discuss what to watch for in the final months of the year.
The seasonal correction by #SPX that we discussed would likely happen in Aug/Sep has materialized. In this video we look at this correction within the context of history to better understand the movements in the bond market. We also discuss #Bitcoin briefly as well.
The yield curve remains inverted, but the spread between the 10 yr. and 3 mo. treasuries has narrowed. However, the reason for this is has been due to a bear steepener as opposed to a bull steepener. In this video, we talk about these ideas and how it impacts the yield curve. We also discuss the implications of an inverted yield curve on recessions.
Let’s discuss recent movements in the #SP500! We talk about the seasonal correction, and at what point it might no longer be a seasonal correction. We also discuss risk assets and how they relate to the bond market.
– TIMESTAMPS –
0:00 Intro
0:41 About The Report
2:58 Monetary Policy
6:28 Recessions
9:02 Inflation
11:41 USD Dominance
14:44 Market Volatility
17:59 Why it Doesn’t Always Affect Crypto
20:43 Outro
~~~~~
📜 Disclaimer 📜
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.
Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months.
And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term.
In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress.
The narrative around inflation will change quickly because “the Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.” Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
The Volatility Index or the VIX is somewhat useful in navigating the #SP500. Historically, during this inflationary bear market, the VIX has bottomed at SP500 tops and has topped at SP500 bottoms. Now that the VIX is coming up on its typical low for this bear market, will the SP500 get rejected once again? In this video we talk about likely outcomes.
Let’s jump into the equityverse and provide an update on the S&P 500! In this video we take a look at the bear market within the context of prior bear markets. This way, we can better prepare for various outcomes.
Let’s jump into the equityverse and provide an update on the S&P 500! In this video we take a look at the bear market within the context of prior bear markets. This way, we can better prepare for various outcomes.
Let’s jump into the equityverse and provide an update on the S&P 500! In this video we take a look at the bear market within the context of prior bear markets. This way, we can better prepare for various outcomes.
