Steno's Signals: Liquidity Will Soon Be Drier than a Martini



Will the old adage “sell in May and go away” apply in 2023?

Andreas Steno Larsen examines how liquidity trends are turning negative and macro fundamentals are weakening alongside an equity rally that may be exhausting. Find out what comes next on Steno’s Signals.

CHAPTERS:
1 Examining The First Republic Bank Deal By JP Morgan 01:55
2 The Global Liquidity Outlook Is Worsening 09:06
3 Viewer Questions 0:23:06

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#financialmarkets #liquidity #realvision

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Understanding The Private Debt Market



The private debt market has grown substantially since the Global Financial Crisis, which triggered regulatory reforms that restricted traditional banks’ lending practices.

Into the breach have stepped non-bank lenders, filling the gap and then some. What was once only a niche has grown to $1.2 trillion in assets under management and is tracking to $1.5 trillion by 2025, according to investment data firm Prequin.

Nelson Chu, the founder and CEO of private credit platform Percent, explains to Andreas Steno-Larsen how his startup facilitates investor access to private credit and business and consumer access to private capital.

This is a must-see interview for those interested in an under explored alternative asset class. Recorded on July 6, 2022.

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#privatedebt #debt #debtmarket

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Full Episode: This Is The Decade Of The Bear



Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months.

And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress.

The narrative around inflation will change quickly because “the Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.” Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.

#sp500 #equities #wallstreet

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Future Prices: How Prepared Is Europe For The Winter?



If people in Europe don’t reduce their energy consumption this winter, companies will have to – and that means a big spike in unemployment, according to Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Switzerland-based commodity investment firm Burggraben Holding AG.

Stahel says Russia’s reported maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline is just an excuse to stop supplying Europe, and the consequences of that action will be severe.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Stahel explains why the continent is ill-prepared for Vladimir Putin’s energy brinkmanship and outlines the steps it should take, including restoring nuclear energy capabilities, to counter his belligerence. Recorded on July 14, 2022.

Be sure to check out Stahel’s full report, including slides not featured in the interview, in our Reports section on our website.

#energymarket #energysector #europe

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Who Will Rule in Rome?



Italy’s snap general election on Sunday, September 25, is likely to result in a government led by the far-right Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”) party.

Major issues include the country’s response to the energy crisis and its relationship with Russia as well as its very future in the European Union.

Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Andrea Paltrinieri, associate professor of banking and finance at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, for an up-close perspective on Italy’s efforts to deal with the energy crisis and how the issue factors into the domestic political debate.

Patrinieri also talks about the importance of natural gas to Italian electricity production, whether a new government will make a deal with Vladimir Putin, and the realistic prospects for the “Italexit” movement. Recorded on September 21, 2022

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#italia #italy #italiannews

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Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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Is This a Real or a Technical Recession?



On one hand, the U.S. labor market is strong. On the other hand, we’ve seen two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

So, is this a “real” recession, or even a “technical” recession? And what data will signal a material breakdown in the labor market? Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to share his insights on recent PMI data from both the Institute of Supply Management and S&P Global, noting the contrast between the readings in the two reports.

Peter explains how S&P Global takes into account small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) as well as larger corporations, unlike the ISM, and breaks down why SME health is a leading indicator for larger companies, corporate earnings, and labor.

He also addresses the price pressures SMEs face, such as energy, and how spill-over effects in Europe and Asia will impact the U.S. economy. Recorded on September 6, 2022.

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#recession #labormarket #gdp

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Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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What Can We Expect From a Lula Presidency?



Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly outran Jair Bolsonaro in a tight race for Brazil’s presidency and will take office on January 1, 2023.

Setting aside his campaign-trail assurances of fiscal responsibility, investors are already expressing concern about Lula’s left-wing populism and how his Workers’ Party will shape the domestic economy.

And Mario Lima, a senior analyst covering Brazil for Medley Global Advisors, believes Lula’s term will be no “cakewalk.” In conversation with Andreas Steno Larsen, Marios shares his perspective on South America’s largest economy, including an assessment of Lula’s policy priorities and their potential knock-on effects.

Brazil’s economy and its stock market have surprised to the upside in 2022. Can that good fortune continue under the new regime? Recorded on October 31, 2022.

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#bolsonaro #lula #lula2022

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold #brazil #lulapresidente #bolsonaro2022 #bolsonaropresidente

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Deep Analysis: Who Will Rule in Rome?



Italy’s snap general election on Sunday, September 25, is likely to result in a government led by the far-right Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”) party.

Major issues include the country’s response to the energy crisis and its relationship with Russia as well as its very future in the European Union.

Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Andrea Paltrinieri, associate professor of banking and finance at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, for an up-close perspective on Italy’s efforts to deal with the energy crisis and how the issue factors into the domestic political debate.

Patrinieri also talks about the importance of natural gas to Italian electricity production, whether a new government will make a deal with Vladimir Putin, and the realistic prospects for the “Italexit” movement. Recorded on September 21, 2022

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TIMESTAMPS:
1 What’s Your Take on the European Energy Crisis? 01:53
2 What Is the Energy Situation in Italy Specifically? 08:52
3 What Is the Political Messaging Around Energy in Italy? 0:12:26
4 How Important Is Natural Gas as an Input for Electricity Production in Italy? 0:17:03
5 The Political Backdrop in Italy Ahead of Elections 0:20:09
6 Are Lifting EU Sanctions Part of the Political Debate in Italy? 0:27:41
7 Should We Worry Whether Italy Will Reconsider Exiting the EU? 0:33:17
8 What Will Happen if Italy Is Forced to Ration Energy? 0:40:23
9 The Takeaways 0:43:40

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#italia #italy #italiannews

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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How To Be a Winning Trader w/ Brent Donnelly



Brent Donnelly has spent most of his life in markets. He got into forex while working for top-tier banks in the U.S.

He traded the dot-com bubble with his own money. And he was at Lehman Brothers when it collapsed. In this special episode of My Life in 4 Trades, Brent shares with guest host Andreas Steno Larsen his perspective on trading, including the big regrets that became some of his best lessons.

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#tradingstrategy #tradingeducation #tradingtips

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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Will There Be Enough Energy for Europe This Winter?



European energy markets have been relatively quiet the past several weeks, at the same time the continent is enjoying an unusually warm fall.

With natural gas prices down almost 70% from their August peak and storage capacity throughout the EU nearly maxed out, is the worst of the crisis behind us?

As Real Vision Senior Markets Editor Andreas Steno Larsen sees it, this is only the beginning.

As he recently tweeted, “The bottom is close to being in” for natural gas. In conversation with Maggie Lake, Andreas assesses recent data on natural gas storage, flows, and consumption patterns in Europe and reaches a stark conclusion: Markets are now too complacent. Recorded on October 31, 2022.

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#energycrisis #europenews #europeanunion

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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