Inflation: Where Will October's Promising Signs Lead?



Stocks surged following the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data for October, a softer-than-expected print taken as sure sign inflation is on the downslope. But all Andy Constan sees is another “false dawn.”

Andy, now the CEO of Damped Spring and a veteran of both Solomon Brothers and Bridgewater Associates, says markets face significant headwinds because of quantitative tightening.

He joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the main drivers of financial asset prices right now – contracting liquidity, risk premia, and positioning, among others – and to share his “Framework 101” for building portfolios and generating alpha. Recorded on November 16, 2022.

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#macro #assets #inflation

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Is This the End of US Dominance?



Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been among the strongest currencies against the buck this year. Amid global upheaval unlike anything in recent memory, emerging markets have become much more attractive to investors.

Is this a durable trend in asset allocation? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, for a conversation about the convergence of deglobalization, inflation, and quantitative tightening and the emergence of emerging markets as we transition to a multipolar geopolitical-macroeconomic regime.

Follow Whitney on Twitter @TotemMacro. Recorded on November 23, 2022.

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#useconomy #tech #emergingmarkets

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When & How Would China's Reopening Take Place?



In a rare moment, mass protests broke out all across China as anger over “zero COVID” restrictions peaked in late November. Authorities quashed the collective skeptical impulse.

But, in recent days, they’ve also committed to “baby steps” out of current policy. Does this indicate Xi Jinping and the Communist Party of China will accelerate the long-anticipated reopening of the world’s second-largest economy? And, even if they do, what will China’s role be in a shifting global economic order?

Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Shehzad Qazi, the chief operating officer of China Beige Book International, for a conversation about the long-term implications of China’s popular uprising, the condition of the Chinese economy, and the Middle Kingdom’s role on the world stage. Recorded on November 29, 2022.

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#chinaeconomy #china #chinanews

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The Surprising Truth About Falling Consumer Prices



Andreas Steno Larsen breaks down the most important themes in global macro. This week it’s falling inflation.

In the inaugural episode of Stenos Signals, Andreas walks us through why inflation will fall fast in the first quarter of this year, why that might not be a broad-based sign to buy equities— especially in the energy sector— and tells us how he’s setting up to trade it. Recorded on January 3rd, 2022.

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#macro #inflationrate #inflation

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Steno's Signals: How China's Reopening May Affect Commodities & Equities



🔥 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 Newsletter: Understand What’s Moving Markets — In Minutes! http://www.realvision.com/rvdb

China bids adieu to zero-COVID this week after its borders reopened, and investors are flocking in to capitalize on these long-awaited trading opportunities.

Andreas takes a step back to examine the Chinese economy as it currently stands and digs into how the reopening may affect prices across various asset classes. Recorded on January 10, 2023.

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#chinaeconomy #chinanews #financialmarkets

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Dollar Liquidity Incoming: How Will It Move Markets?



When the U.S. breaches its debt limit, the Treasury will be forced to inject new liquidity into financial markets using various accounting gimmicks.

Andreas shares how this extra cash flow could affect various asset classes and explores the potential multiple and ugly ramifications of this nightmare scenario. Recorded on January 17, 2023.

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#dollar #macro #usdollar

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Andreas Steno & Marko Papic: The Anti-Davos Trade



Elites are misunderstanding risk, but here’s how to play it in your favor.

Despite the backdrop of doom and gloom at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Marko Papic, Clocktower Group’s Chief Strategist is optimistic. He tells Andreas Steno Larsen exactly where he sees the upside and why he’s bullish on commodities, China’s reopening, and emerging markets generally.

Andreas then turns his attention to trade expression by sharing his favorite plays on this theme including dispersion in commodity sectors and European equities. Recorded on January 17, 2023.

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#riskmanagement #davos2023 #worldeconomicforum

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Why You Shouldn't Get Too Comfortable Holding Risk Assets



What’s the “Waller Rule,” and what does it have to do with dollar liquidity and your investments?

Following a speech last week by FOMC member Christopher Waller, Andreas Steno Larsen presents what he calls the “Waller Rule,” which suggests that QT will either need to slow or pause if USD reserves become equal to 10-11% of U.S. GDP.

He then breaks down why this potential scenario might be bad news for risk assets in the second half of 2023. Recorded on January 24, 2023.

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#investing #riskmanagement #risk

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth: Will the Fed Defy Markets?



Is it the Fed’s real goal to tame inflation or is it truly to tighten financial conditions even further?

With the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth notes that it’s “an extraordinary sight” that “there has never been this much division on the Federal Reserve Board … and yet there seems to be this concerted effort to prevent any dissent from escaping from the Eccles Building.”

The course of QT in 2023 may carry on longer than most expect, and she along with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen discuss whether the Fed may be gearing up to defy markets. Recorded on January 20, 2023.

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#financialmarkets #monetarypolicy #fed

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Disclaimer:
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Fed vs. Markets: Who Will Prevail? w/ Danielle DiMartino Booth



Is it the Fed’s real goal to tame inflation or is it truly to tighten financial conditions even further?

With the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth notes that it’s “an extraordinary sight” that “there has never been this much division on the Federal Reserve Board … and yet there seems to be this concerted effort to prevent any dissent from escaping from the Eccles Building.”

The course of QT in 2023 may carry on longer than most expect, and she along with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen discuss whether the Fed may be gearing up to defy markets. Recorded on January 20, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 A Divided Federal Reserve Board and Its Curious Lack of Dissent 00:59
2 Will the Fed Defy Markets? 06:59
3 What Is the Current Assessment of Economic Growth in the Fed? 0:11:39
4 The U.S. Employment Picture 0:17:17
5 Is Powell Trying to Break the Back of the Fed Put? 0:24:18
6 Tighter for Longer on One Hand, Dollar Liquidity Injections on the Other 0:31:43
7 Conclusion 0:41:22
8 The Takeaways 0:46:33

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