The seasonal correction by #SPX that we discussed would likely happen in Aug/Sep has materialized. In this video we look at this correction within the context of history to better understand the movements in the bond market. We also discuss #Bitcoin briefly as well.
Let’s discuss recent movements in the #SP500! We talk about the seasonal correction, and at what point it might no longer be a seasonal correction. We also discuss risk assets and how they relate to the bond market.
What’s the “Waller Rule,” and what does it have to do with dollar liquidity and your investments?
Following a speech last week by FOMC member Christopher Waller, Andreas Steno Larsen presents what he calls the “Waller Rule,” which suggests that QT will either need to slow or pause if USD reserves become equal to 10-11% of U.S. GDP.
He then breaks down why this potential scenario might be bad news for risk assets in the second half of 2023. Recorded on January 24, 2023.
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The most recent #CPI data is now in and #inflation has once again come in below expectations. Risk-assets like #stocks an #Bitcoin have moved up in the short-term. However, does a #recession still loom in 2023? In this video we talk about the implications in the short-term for risk assets, and what still may lie ahead for us in 2023.
The United States is likely heading into a recession in 2023. While there are plenty of academic arguments that we already went into a recession in 2022 based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, there is also the counterpoint of the unemployment rate staying low so far. The #Fed is continuing its battle of combatting #inflation, despite the fact that the #economy is slowing down. The inversion of the yield curve, coupled with the #Fed’s battle with #inflation, is likely sending the United States into a recession sooner rather than later. In this video we talk about all of these indicators, and how it could affect the #stock market.
The most recent jobs report showed us that #unemployment fell to 3.5%. This is on par with the most recent low. The likely response by the #federalreserve is to remain hawkish because #inflation remains high. This will likely cause more pain in risk assets over months to come.
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at market developments leading up to last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. An easing in financial conditions doesn’t appear to be in-line with the wishes of a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has raised the risk of a significant re-pricing in risk assets. In the Chatter, Mo Haghbin, Chief Commercial Officer and Global COO of Investment Solutions at Invesco, gives his evaluation of recent Fed comments from the Federal Reserve and whether the risk rally has altered the odds of a policy pivot.
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During a period where many of us have decided to become armchair economists (myself included), I thought it would be somewhat useful to dive into some larger trends shaping in the current macroeconomic landscape. We can see some inversions on the yield curve, inflation remains high, and the #Fed will likely have to continue raising rates into a slowing economy due to rampant #inflation. Of course anything can happen, but the outlook on some of these metrics can be useful in navigating these market conditions.
