The seasonal correction by #SPX that we discussed would likely happen in Aug/Sep has materialized. In this video we look at this correction within the context of history to better understand the movements in the bond market. We also discuss #Bitcoin briefly as well.
Investors are fleeing Crypto at an alarming rate, and US equities are selling off at the quickest pace in over a decade. Yields continue to sore to unprecedented heights and the stock market breadth is at extreme lows whilst market participants panic sell. In today’s episode of Crypto Banter, Kyledoops shows you the correlation between 4 key charts & shares why it is lining up for a major opportunity!
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โฑ๐ง๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฝ๐:
00:00 US Equities Sell-Off – Breadth Explained
02:15 Stock Market Fear & Greed Index – Extreme Fear
05:35 Trading Opportunity Coming Up
07:12 TLT 20-Year Treasury Bonds, S&P 500 & DXY
10:58 Short Trading Gold on PrimeXBT
13:30 Bitcoin Market Phases & Stablecoins Inflow
18:30 Trading Bitcoin – Relief Rallies & Ranges
19:50 Psychology of a Crypto Market Cycle
23:15 Bitcoin Dominance BTC.D & Trading ETH/BTC
25:08 Trading Coinbase – Safe Exposure to Crypto
27:00 Bitcoin Trading – Technical Analysis
30:49 Bitcoin Liquidity & Liquidation Levels
The #SP500 has experienced a noticeable pullback over the last few weeks. This is a seasonal correction that we discussed many times and were prepared for by looking at historical trends. However, accounting for the money supply, or M2, can be an interesting way to view the market.
The historical record shows that in the last 6 pre-election years, the #NASDAQ has had a seasonal correction in the Aug-Sep timeframe. Is that happenings again? In this video, we look at this seasonality. We also compare this to #Bitcoin and even #MSFT.
Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months.
And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term.
In conversation with Real Visionโs Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress.
The narrative around inflation will change quickly because โthe Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.โ Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.
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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusionโฆThe material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as โRV RELEASESโ} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, โAffiliated Partiesโ} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individualโs, group of individualsโ or entityโs specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that โ now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
The Volatility Index or the VIX is somewhat useful in navigating the #SP500. Historically, during this inflationary bear market, the VIX has bottomed at SP500 tops and has topped at SP500 bottoms. Now that the VIX is coming up on its typical low for this bear market, will the SP500 get rejected once again? In this video we talk about likely outcomes.
The Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) are two indicators created to measure the current state and momentum of labor market conditions. The first indicator, referred to as the level indicator, measures the level of activity in labor markets. The second indicator, referred to as the momentum indicator, is shown in this chart and measures momentum in labor markets. A positive value indicates that the labor market momentum is above its long-run average, while a negative value signifies that the labor market momentum is below its long-run average. In order to create the level and momentum indicators a total of 24 labor market datasets are used, including the unemployment rate, initial claims and labor force participation rate.
Labor market conditions refer to the state of the job market, which includes the supply and demand for labor, the availability and quality of jobs, and the wages and benefits offered to workers.
We have finally ushered in the yearly close for the #SP500. Now that it is in, let’s talk about where #stocks stand and the outlook for 2023. With an inverted yield curve, a recession seems like the base case to be prepared for in 2023. Where do you think #stocks will go in 2023? Let me know in the comments!
The #SP500 bear market has been dragging on for over a year now (assuming the bottom is not in). The continued hawkish stance by the #Fed puts downward pressure on risk assets in general. In this video we take a look at the structural bear markets of 2022-2023, and compare it to bear markets of the past. We also talk about #recessions, #inflation, and interest rates. What do you think of this video? Let me know in the comments!
How does the 2022 bear market compare to historical bear markets? In this video we compare the 2022 bear market to prior ones ranging from the dot com bust, the financial crisis, the Great Depression, and more! Let me know what you think of this analysis on prior #stock market bear markets in the comments!