SP500: Bear Market Structure, Recessions, and the Federal Reserve



The #SP500 bear market has been dragging on for over a year now (assuming the bottom is not in). The continued hawkish stance by the #Fed puts downward pressure on risk assets in general. In this video we take a look at the structural bear markets of 2022-2023, and compare it to bear markets of the past. We also talk about #recessions, #inflation, and interest rates. What do you think of this video? Let me know in the comments!

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The United States: Heading Into a Recession (What it Means for Stocks)



The United States is likely heading into a recession in 2023. While there are plenty of academic arguments that we already went into a recession in 2022 based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, there is also the counterpoint of the unemployment rate staying low so far. The #Fed is continuing its battle of combatting #inflation, despite the fact that the #economy is slowing down. The inversion of the yield curve, coupled with the #Fed’s battle with #inflation, is likely sending the United States into a recession sooner rather than later. In this video we talk about all of these indicators, and how it could affect the #stock market.

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Unemployment, Recessions, and Stock Market Bottoms



Thanks for jumping back into the macroverse! In this video we talk about #unemployment, #recessions, and #stock market bottoms. Will the stock market bottom during the #recession like usual? Is #unemployment about to go up due to the #Fed raising interest rates into an #economy that is slowing down? Let me know what you think will happen in the comments!

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Recessions and The Yield Curve



There is a lot to be gained by better understanding the yield curve and its effect on financial markets. As long as the #FED raises interest rates, there is a more compelling reason for investors to go from being risk-on to risk-off. With #inflation staying somewhat sticky, and #unemployment at historically low levels, the Federal Reserve is not under that much pressure to pivot from a period of Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing. In this video, we look at how the yield curve can be used to be predict recessions, and how that relates to the #SP500.

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What Will A Future Fed Pivot Mean for Risk Assets?



The Federal Reserve will pivot at some point in the future. However, what are the implications of this pivot? Does a pivot by the Fed always immediately lead us into risk-on markets? Let us dive in and see! We also talk about inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.

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Do Recessions Always Follow High Inflation?



Do recessions in the United States always follow periods of high inflation? In this video we take a look at prior periods of high inflation to understand what occurred after and its implications on the #stock market. In this video we talk about #stocks, #recessions, #inflation, #unemployment, and the #Fed. What do you think of jumping into the macroverse? Let me know in the comments!

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Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions



During a period where many of us have decided to become armchair economists (myself included), I thought it would be somewhat useful to dive into some larger trends shaping in the current macroeconomic landscape. We can see some inversions on the yield curve, inflation remains high, and the #Fed will likely have to continue raising rates into a slowing economy due to rampant #inflation. Of course anything can happen, but the outlook on some of these metrics can be useful in navigating these market conditions.

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