What Can We Expect From a Lula Presidency?



Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly outran Jair Bolsonaro in a tight race for Brazil’s presidency and will take office on January 1, 2023.

Setting aside his campaign-trail assurances of fiscal responsibility, investors are already expressing concern about Lula’s left-wing populism and how his Workers’ Party will shape the domestic economy.

And Mario Lima, a senior analyst covering Brazil for Medley Global Advisors, believes Lula’s term will be no “cakewalk.” In conversation with Andreas Steno Larsen, Marios shares his perspective on South America’s largest economy, including an assessment of Lula’s policy priorities and their potential knock-on effects.

Brazil’s economy and its stock market have surprised to the upside in 2022. Can that good fortune continue under the new regime? Recorded on October 31, 2022.

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#bolsonaro #lula #lula2022

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Deep Analysis: Who Will Rule in Rome?



Italy’s snap general election on Sunday, September 25, is likely to result in a government led by the far-right Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”) party.

Major issues include the country’s response to the energy crisis and its relationship with Russia as well as its very future in the European Union.

Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Andrea Paltrinieri, associate professor of banking and finance at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, for an up-close perspective on Italy’s efforts to deal with the energy crisis and how the issue factors into the domestic political debate.

Patrinieri also talks about the importance of natural gas to Italian electricity production, whether a new government will make a deal with Vladimir Putin, and the realistic prospects for the “Italexit” movement. Recorded on September 21, 2022

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TIMESTAMPS:
1 What’s Your Take on the European Energy Crisis? 01:53
2 What Is the Energy Situation in Italy Specifically? 08:52
3 What Is the Political Messaging Around Energy in Italy? 0:12:26
4 How Important Is Natural Gas as an Input for Electricity Production in Italy? 0:17:03
5 The Political Backdrop in Italy Ahead of Elections 0:20:09
6 Are Lifting EU Sanctions Part of the Political Debate in Italy? 0:27:41
7 Should We Worry Whether Italy Will Reconsider Exiting the EU? 0:33:17
8 What Will Happen if Italy Is Forced to Ration Energy? 0:40:23
9 The Takeaways 0:43:40

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#italia #italy #italiannews

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How To Be a Winning Trader w/ Brent Donnelly



Brent Donnelly has spent most of his life in markets. He got into forex while working for top-tier banks in the U.S.

He traded the dot-com bubble with his own money. And he was at Lehman Brothers when it collapsed. In this special episode of My Life in 4 Trades, Brent shares with guest host Andreas Steno Larsen his perspective on trading, including the big regrets that became some of his best lessons.

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#tradingstrategy #tradingeducation #tradingtips

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Will There Be Enough Energy for Europe This Winter?



European energy markets have been relatively quiet the past several weeks, at the same time the continent is enjoying an unusually warm fall.

With natural gas prices down almost 70% from their August peak and storage capacity throughout the EU nearly maxed out, is the worst of the crisis behind us?

As Real Vision Senior Markets Editor Andreas Steno Larsen sees it, this is only the beginning.

As he recently tweeted, “The bottom is close to being in” for natural gas. In conversation with Maggie Lake, Andreas assesses recent data on natural gas storage, flows, and consumption patterns in Europe and reaches a stark conclusion: Markets are now too complacent. Recorded on October 31, 2022.

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#energycrisis #europenews #europeanunion

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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Full Episode: China's Economy At Risk?



Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil.

“The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don’t expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets.

We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out.”

TIMESTAMPS
00:01:41 Is Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan a Part of a Larger Strategy from the White House?
00:06:06 Do You Expect U.S.-China Tensions to Escalate?
00:15:07 China Is Watching How the Ukraine-Russia Conflict Will Unfold
00:27:26 China’s Real Estate Crisis Is Manufactured
00:35:55 China and the Supply Chain Question
00:43:26 Are Chinese Assets Investable?

#chinaeconomy #china #useconomy

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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More Fuel For The Inflation Fire



The jury is out on whether massive government spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to today’s inflation.

However, as politicians stare down a potential recession, they face a critical dilemma: by stimulating growth will they also further stimulate prices?

Dario Perkins, the managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the consequences of the European energy crisis, including a vicious cycle of expansionary fiscal policy that would only exacerbate existing systemic problems. Perkins also shares his thoughts on the “romance” with Modern Monetary Theory and describes what he considers a “true” recession. Recorded on August 18, 2022.

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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This is What Will Happen To Europe's Energy Emergency



It’s no secret Europe’s energy emergency is as dire as ever with fall and winter approaching.

Already facing potentially years of supply rationing, European Union authorities are floating proposals to separate electricity prices from natural gas prices. It’s enough to force countries like Germany to reconsider decisions to mothball nuclear power plants and to keep them operating beyond 2022. Are we on the verge of a nuclear renaissance that will free Europe from Russian natural gas and other external suppliers? Mark Nelson, the managing director of the Radiant Energy Group, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for an in-depth conversation about the energy crisis and the factors contributing to Europe’s predicament. Mark addresses lingering fears and questions about nuclear power production and makes the case for the immediate revival of existing capacity and commencement of new projects as well. Recorded on August 22, 2022.
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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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Why One European Crisis Will Create Another



With natural gas supplies squeezed, electricity prices bouncing all over the place, another historic interest rate increase on the horizon, and recession looming, Europe’s near-term outlook is bleak.

And, now, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is raising the alarm on surging private debt across the continent.

Is it all too much to bear? Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Eurodollar University’s Emil Kalinowski to talk about what the BIS is looking at data-wise when it assesses the European private debt market, how assets, including housing, will be affected, and why policymakers must address rising systemic banking risk in Europe. Recorded on August 31, 2022.

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#europenews #europeanunion #debt

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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A Tale of Two Cities: ISM vs S&P Global Readings



On one hand, the U.S. labor market is strong. On the other hand, we’ve seen two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

So, is this a “real” recession, or even a “technical” recession? And what data will signal a material breakdown in the labor market? Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to share his insights on recent PMI data from both the Institute of Supply Management and S&P Global, noting the contrast between the readings in the two reports.

Peter explains how S&P Global takes into account small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) as well as larger corporations, unlike the ISM, and breaks down why SME health is a leading indicator for larger companies, corporate earnings, and labor.

He also addresses the price pressures SMEs face, such as energy, and how spill-over effects in Europe and Asia will impact the U.S. economy. Recorded on September 6, 2022.

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#recession #labormarket #gdp

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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Full Episode: More Fuel For The Inflation Fire



RV Essential: 59% OFF for $99/year 👉 It’s more affordable than a craft beer a month! 🍻 https://rvtv.io/3BDEzwr

The jury is out on whether massive government spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to today’s inflation.

However, as politicians stare down a potential recession, they face a critical dilemma: by stimulating growth will they also further stimulate prices?

Dario Perkins, the managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the consequences of the European energy crisis, including a vicious cycle of expansionary fiscal policy that would only exacerbate existing systemic problems.

Perkins also shares his thoughts on the “romance” with Modern Monetary Theory and describes what he considers a “true” recession. Recorded on August 18, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:01:39 What are the Odds of a Recession Now?
00:04:23 A Glimmer of Hope?
00:06:25 Technical Versus True Recession
00:08:32 Inflation Blame Game
00:11:48 Lessons Learned
00:13:59 Policy Response to Rising Energy Costs
00:16:20 Stuck in a Vicious Cycle?
00:20:07 “The Cure for High Prices is High Prices”
00:21:57 New Regime for Inflation
00:27:21 Demographic Economics
00:30:25 Reshoring Manufacturing Jobs
00:31:49 The MMT Romance
00:35:16 A Question of Trust
00:37:41 The New Policy Mix
00:43:00 The Hunt for Clarity
00:46:04 Market Disconnects
00:47:00 The Takeaways

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

#inflation #energycrisis #fiscalpolicy

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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