Is Inflation Actually Slowing in the US Now?



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The latest CPI report gives investors pause over whether the U.S. is actually experiencing disinflation.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index report for January showed that inflation cooled off only slightly — less than most economists’ expectations. Andreas Steno Larsen dives deeper into the numbers to find out whether U.S. inflation is, in fact, retreating.

He also takes a step back to look at liquidity on a global scale as the Bank of Japan picks Kazuo Ueda to become its next governor. Recorded on February 15, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 Is Inflation Still Slowing? 00:41
2 Has Global Liquidity Bottomed Already? 0:14:46
3 Conclusion 0:22:26

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#inflationrate #inflation #cpi

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Steno Signals: Why You Can't Fully Trust Recent U.S. Data



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Watch this to find out how 50 percent of the current rebound was created in a spreadsheet.

Recent data has shown the consumer made a comeback in the first month of the year, but as Andreas Steno Larsen reveals, that may be only half true.

Watch this edition of Steno’s Signals to find out why seasonal adjustments may be sending misleading signs about how the economy is actually faring. Recorded on February 21, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 The Most Important Chart in Global 01:01
2 Is the Comeback Real or Fake?  04:58
3 Case Studies 08:23
4 Pullback in Liquidity Trends 0:15:46
5 A Warning from Andreas 0:21:15

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#financialmarkets #macro #CPI

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Steno's Signals: A New Month, a New Macro Regime



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Watching these three key variables is critical for tracking a macro environment that continues to be in flux.

Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen has his eye on what he considers “the three main fundamental variables for the economy” — liquidity, inflation, and growth.

Going into March, he’s observing the macro regime shifting once again, and he walks us through each of these variables to point to where it’s headed. Recorded on February 28, 2023.

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#macro #financialmarkets #inflation

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Steno's Signals: Is QE About to Make a Comeback?



The solutions to contain deposit flight may lead us right back to QE and rate cuts.

In this special edition of Steno’s Signals, Andreas Steno Larsen goes live to provide an update on what’s required to contain deposit flight and to answer Essential members’ questions. To view Andreas’s chart deck, go here: https://rvtv.io/40wavO6

CHAPTERS:
1 Price Action in Rates Markets 00:32
2 How to Measure Deposit Flight 08:56
3 Credit Standards and Bank Vulnerability 0:14:04
4 Viewer Questions 0:19:41
5 The Takeaways 0:27:19

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#fed #monetarypolicy #federalreserve

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Steno's Signals: Liquidity Will Soon Be Drier than a Martini



Will the old adage “sell in May and go away” apply in 2023?

Andreas Steno Larsen examines how liquidity trends are turning negative and macro fundamentals are weakening alongside an equity rally that may be exhausting. Find out what comes next on Steno’s Signals.

CHAPTERS:
1 Examining The First Republic Bank Deal By JP Morgan 01:55
2 The Global Liquidity Outlook Is Worsening 09:06
3 Viewer Questions 0:23:06

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#financialmarkets #liquidity #realvision

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Understanding The Private Debt Market



The private debt market has grown substantially since the Global Financial Crisis, which triggered regulatory reforms that restricted traditional banks’ lending practices.

Into the breach have stepped non-bank lenders, filling the gap and then some. What was once only a niche has grown to $1.2 trillion in assets under management and is tracking to $1.5 trillion by 2025, according to investment data firm Prequin.

Nelson Chu, the founder and CEO of private credit platform Percent, explains to Andreas Steno-Larsen how his startup facilitates investor access to private credit and business and consumer access to private capital.

This is a must-see interview for those interested in an under explored alternative asset class. Recorded on July 6, 2022.

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#privatedebt #debt #debtmarket

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Full Episode: This Is The Decade Of The Bear



Ignore short-term, headline-driven rallies. According to Eric Johnston, the S&P 500 is headed to the low 3,000s during the next six months.

And the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald says investors must brace for lower equity returns over all time horizons, short-, medium-, and long-term.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Johnston argues that the era of accommodative U.S. monetary and fiscal policy is over, with no more easy money for Wall Street from the Federal Reserve or handouts for Main Street from Congress.

The narrative around inflation will change quickly because “the Fed is significantly at risk of overshooting.” Johnston makes the case that rapidly slowing inflation will give a boost to bonds in the medium to long term, and he also advocates for Chinese equities. Recorded on June 17, 2022.

#sp500 #equities #wallstreet

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Future Prices: How Prepared Is Europe For The Winter?



If people in Europe don’t reduce their energy consumption this winter, companies will have to – and that means a big spike in unemployment, according to Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Switzerland-based commodity investment firm Burggraben Holding AG.

Stahel says Russia’s reported maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline is just an excuse to stop supplying Europe, and the consequences of that action will be severe.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Stahel explains why the continent is ill-prepared for Vladimir Putin’s energy brinkmanship and outlines the steps it should take, including restoring nuclear energy capabilities, to counter his belligerence. Recorded on July 14, 2022.

Be sure to check out Stahel’s full report, including slides not featured in the interview, in our Reports section on our website.

#energymarket #energysector #europe

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Who Will Rule in Rome?



Italy’s snap general election on Sunday, September 25, is likely to result in a government led by the far-right Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”) party.

Major issues include the country’s response to the energy crisis and its relationship with Russia as well as its very future in the European Union.

Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Andrea Paltrinieri, associate professor of banking and finance at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, for an up-close perspective on Italy’s efforts to deal with the energy crisis and how the issue factors into the domestic political debate.

Patrinieri also talks about the importance of natural gas to Italian electricity production, whether a new government will make a deal with Vladimir Putin, and the realistic prospects for the “Italexit” movement. Recorded on September 21, 2022

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#italia #italy #italiannews

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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Is This a Real or a Technical Recession?



On one hand, the U.S. labor market is strong. On the other hand, we’ve seen two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

So, is this a “real” recession, or even a “technical” recession? And what data will signal a material breakdown in the labor market? Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to share his insights on recent PMI data from both the Institute of Supply Management and S&P Global, noting the contrast between the readings in the two reports.

Peter explains how S&P Global takes into account small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs) as well as larger corporations, unlike the ISM, and breaks down why SME health is a leading indicator for larger companies, corporate earnings, and labor.

He also addresses the price pressures SMEs face, such as energy, and how spill-over effects in Europe and Asia will impact the U.S. economy. Recorded on September 6, 2022.

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