Is This the End of US Dominance?



Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been among the strongest currencies against the buck this year. Amid global upheaval unlike anything in recent memory, emerging markets have become much more attractive to investors.

Is this a durable trend in asset allocation? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, for a conversation about the convergence of deglobalization, inflation, and quantitative tightening and the emergence of emerging markets as we transition to a multipolar geopolitical-macroeconomic regime.

Follow Whitney on Twitter @TotemMacro. Recorded on November 23, 2022.

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#useconomy #tech #emergingmarkets

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Dario Perkins & Roger Hirst: The BIG Macro Turning Point



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We are in the very early stages of a new macro regime, and investors need to adapt.

In the second installment of our two-week special, How To Unf*ck Your Future series, Dario Perkins explains why he thinks we’re leaving behind the regime of the past 50 years and currently entering a new multi-decade supercycle.

The Managing Director for Global Macro at TS Lombard tells Roger Hirst that we’re in the very early stages of a new macro environment where the stock market will start to reflect the economy a little bit more and where the balance of power between labor and capital in the economy is tilted toward labor.

In his view, that means it will require a lot more effort for investors to eke out returns. Recorded on Friday, March 3, 2023.

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#financialmarkets #macro #realvision

About Real Vision™:
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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Dario Perkins: The Early Stages of a New Macro Regime



🔥 Get a 14-day 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 trial to Real Vision 👉 http://rvtv.io/unfk

We are in the very early stages of a new macro regime, and investors need to adapt.

In the second installment of our two-week special, How To Unf*ck Your Future series, Dario Perkins explains why he thinks we’re leaving behind the regime of the past 50 years and currently entering a new multi-decade supercycle.

The Managing Director for Global Macro at TS Lombard tells Roger Hirst that we’re in the very early stages of a new macro environment where the stock market will start to reflect the economy a little bit more and where the balance of power between labor and capital in the economy is tilted toward labor. In his view, that means it will require a lot more effort for investors to eke out returns. Recorded on Friday, March 3, 2023.

CHAPTERS:
1 We’re at a Turning Point 00:47
2 Expect More Volatility in Inflation 08:15
3 Changing the Way We Invest 0:23:58
4 Volatility Will Rule in the Bond Market 0:33:26
5 Focus on Emerging Markets 0:39:29
6 The Tangible 20s 0:42:59
7 The Takeaways 0:56:05

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

#macroeconomics #realvision #macro

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Will There be a RECESSION in 2022? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Jamie McDonald looks at recent developments in various parts of the Treasury yield curve and whether it’s signaling that the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign has finally tipped us into the recessionary phase. While nominal economic data has remained relatively robust here in the United States, the picture is less clear when factoring in the impact of inflation. Are fixed income markets hinting that the Fed is at serious risk of going too far? If so, we’re already beginning to see hints that the Fed might be forced into another dramatic policy shift. In the Chatter, Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, gives her outlook for inflation and the potential implications for various asset classes and equity sector rotations.

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About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

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"It's Time To Start Nibbling" Says Legendary Investor



Emerging Markets pioneer Mark Mobius believes a military conflict between China and Taiwan is the most worrying possibility on the macro landscape right now, but that’s not stopping him from picking up opportunities.

In his view, the strong U.S. dollar isn’t the ‘wrecking ball’ it’s been dubbed. He’s using a bottom-up approach and a long-term time horizon to spot companies that benefit from having a weaker currency.

He’s remarkably upbeat about India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey.

Even though he’s strong on digital payments, cryptocurrency is one asset class where he’s not a believer. “The price of a crypto is based on faith”, he says, and when people lose faith, “it becomes worthless”. Recorded on August 8th, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:35 It’s Time to Start Nibbling
00:01:55 You Can’t Paint Emerging Markets With a Broad Brush
00:04:58 Why Mobius Likes India
00:06:44 Whenever I Get Asked About Cryptocurrencies, I say I Don’t Like to Talk About Religion
00:14:15 The Dollar Wrecking Ball
00:18:46 We Will See Another Leg Down
00:21:10 A Conflict Between China and Taiwan is the Most Worrying Thing on the Macro Landscape
00:29:23 The Investment View on China
00:36:41 Why Mobius Likes Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey
00:47:18 Key Takeaways

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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How Did Teddy Vallee Make 21% Returns During Q1 2022?



Teddy Vallee’s discretionary global macro hedge fund produced a 21% return in the first quarter of 2022 and has generated an average annualized return of 23% since 2018.

Vallee, the founder, and chief investment officer of Pervalle Global, joins Harry Melandri, an advisor at MI2 Partners, basically to answer one big question: How did you do it? “I’ve just been obsessed and focused on what the world looks like over the next 12 months” is Teddy’s short answer.

The long answer begins on a soccer field, continues with a couple of concussions, and includes the development of a series of discretionary indicators, augmented by quantitative factors and technical analysis, that gives him and his firm the flexibility to jump from asset class to asset class, from place to place, and invest successfully regardless of the global macro environment.

Teddy talks to Harry about how that flexibility “has been a huge edge for us” and also explains why he thinks “inflation is going to fade much faster than the market thinks.” Recorded on August 3, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:02:28 How Was Vallee’s Fund Up More Than 20% in Q1
00:04:53 Valle’s Macro Outlook
00:21:03 Listen to the Wise Words of Mike Tyson
00:32:14 The View on Emerging Markets
00:40:30 The View on the Dollar Wrecking Ball
00:43:48 What an Increase in Liquidity Would Mean for Crypto
00:48:30 It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble, It’s What You Know For Sure That Just Ain’t So

#returns #roi #investors

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Will the Fed Flinch? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Real Vision’s James Helliwell uses best-in-class data to look at whether the current growth scare in commodity markets will mean that the Fed can dial back its rate-hiking commitments. The market has been lowering the terminal rate and bringing forward the next rate cuts, but the Fed still needs to get inflation under control. But will they flinch before then? If they do, then they may be storing even more inflationary problems for the future.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu
Become a member of Real Vision — get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership

About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

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Will the Yuan be Next? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether the recent run higher in the dollar will also spread to the Chinese Yuan. So far, it’s been the Euro and the Yen that have seen some of the biggest moves lower versus the US dollar, but will China sit back and allow other regions to take a competitive advantage? The Fed will stay in aggressive tightening mode so long as inflation edges higher. Emerging market currencies have seen significant weakness, and this could pressure China’s policy makers. In the Chatter, we talk to Dewi Johns of Refinitiv Lipper about some of the key fund flows out of the UK.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu
Become a member of Real Vision — get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership

About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

source