Bitcoin is the most decentralized cryptocurrency in the world, but this doesn’t mean it has no risks. In this clip, Anthony Pompliano and Aaron Daniel discuss one of the biggest risks to bitcoin that no one is talking about.
The Nano S Plus + and Nano X offer the safest and easiest way to manage and maintain full control over your crypto and NFTs. Visit https://bit.ly/ledger_pomp to put your self-custody first with Ledger
Pomp writes a daily letter to over 200,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/
●▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬DISCLAIMER▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬●
Boxmining, including its employees, are not affiliated with and do not endorse or sponsor any token sales, initial coin offerings, initial exchange offerings and/or airdrops (the “token sales”) unless clearly disclosed.
The contents of these videos are for information purposes only. Boxmining and its employees do not provide investment advice and do not take one’s personal circumstances into consideration when providing information about token sales and cryptocurrency exchanges or platforms. In light of the above, Boxmining and its employees may hold the cryptocurrencies mentioned in the videos.
Please note that there are legal requirements in various countries that may restrict token sales, and furthermore, the access to, and products and services provided by any of the cryptocurrency exchanges or platforms mentioned in these videos. Consequently, the contents of this video are not directed at or intended to be accessible by persons in any jurisdiction where the extension of the availability of the materials to which you are seeking access would breach any applicable law or regulation.
Decisions to participate in token sales or to buy, sell or hold cryptocurrencies, as well as the access to and use of any cryptocurrency exchange or platform involves risk. You are also responsible for informing yourself about and observing any restrictions and/or requirements imposed with respect to any such token sale, or the access to and use of any cryptocurrency exchange or platform. You must use your own judgment or consult a professional for advice on such matters.
This chart shows the historical backtest of the on-chain risk. The legend allows you to toggle between the individual risk charts that make up the total on-chain risk. Above the chart you can set the weights of the individual risk metrics and see how it changes the total on-chain risk. A weight of 0 removes the metric from the total on-chain risk calculation and a weight of 0.5 makes it contribute 50% less. After the total on-chain risk is calculated, the metric is re-normalized between 0 and 1. To display the true average you can toggle to the “Average” option above the chart.
The historical on-chain risk metric serves as a complementary risk indicator to the original risk metric by using some of the most important on-chain metrics that we offer on our charts page. In this way you can easily check the sentiment across many important on-chain metrics, and use the charts page to dive deeper into the individual metrics. Some individual risk charts provide a unique look to the current stage of the market as well. For example the terminal price risk metric has so far always reached 0 at market cycle bottoms and above 0.9 for market cycle peaks (assuming the most recent significant peak was in April 2021).
The total indicator risk for #Bitcoin is something we can use to better understand where we are within the market cycle. In this video we combine the social risk, price risk, and on-chain risk into a single risk indicator. What do you think of this analysis? Let me know in the comments!
Throughout #Bitcoin’s market cycle, we have spoken about price metrics, on-chain metrics, and social metrics, to name a few. Rather than putting a lot of weight into a single indicator, what if we weighted them equally and combined them into a single risk metric? This idea is what we talk about in this video!
Managing risk in the #crypto markets can mean very different things to different people. From a broader and more classical perspective, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can be used to calculate out your risk-adjusted returns. In this video we look at the Sharpe and Sortino ratios for #BTC, #ETH, #XMR, #XLM, and #LTC (various compositions). We also talk about portfolio weights to minimize volatility. While this is a Monte Carlo based approached to provide an aesthetically pleasing chart, quadratic programming is actually used to solve for the portfolio which maximizes your risk-adjusted returns. Let me know what you think of this analysis on Modern Portfolio Theory and how it relates to #crypto!
0:00 – Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
1:14 – Table of Contents
1:46 – MVRV-Z Score
3:21 – Puell Multiple
4:36 – MVRV
5:05 – mCTC
5:56 – Transaction Fees
6:25 – MCTC
6:58 – Terminal Price
7:22 – Normalize Between Zero & One
8:20 – Total On-Chain Risk
11:59 – Major Bottoms
14:31 – ITC Premium
15:16 – Summary
15:59 – RHODL Ratio & Supply in P/L
17:15 – Closing Thoughts
#Bitcoin provides us the luxury of on-chain analysis. Given this luxury, let us look at various on-chain indicators developed through the years to create an on-chain risk metric. This should provide insight into current price action, and what is the main risk at any given time. What do you think of this #BTC analysis using on-chain data? Let me know in the comments!
It’s a simple observation packed full of wisdom, and it’s just a preview of the bounty of insights dispensed in this can’t-miss series on managing risk.
Market wizards Mark Minervini, Peter Brandt, Anthony Saliba, and Mark Andrew Ritchie share with host Mark Ritchie II ideas that will change the way you manage your trading portfolio. Enjoy this introduction, and be sure to sign up for Real Vision Plus to access the entire series.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Renowned author and professor in finance, Aaron Brown had his first encounter with risk management when he was just fourteen years old — at the poker table.
Gambling is an intriguing area of conversation for host Euan Sinclair as he learns about Brown’s belief that earning an income from risk is an “essential skill” everyone should possess.
Brown’s story of his transition into traditional finance reveals differences and striking similarities between the two worlds. Filmed on March 2, 2022.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
