Inflation: Where Will October's Promising Signs Lead?



Stocks surged following the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data for October, a softer-than-expected print taken as sure sign inflation is on the downslope. But all Andy Constan sees is another “false dawn.”

Andy, now the CEO of Damped Spring and a veteran of both Solomon Brothers and Bridgewater Associates, says markets face significant headwinds because of quantitative tightening.

He joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the main drivers of financial asset prices right now – contracting liquidity, risk premia, and positioning, among others – and to share his “Framework 101” for building portfolios and generating alpha. Recorded on November 16, 2022.

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#macro #assets #inflation

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How Will China's Foreign Relations Look in 2023?



The 2020s have already seen extraordinary change – and the upheaval is still in process. A pandemic paralyzed the globe.

Supply chains buckled. Inflation exploded. Russia invaded Ukraine. Altogether we’re dealing with a combination of cross-cutting macroeconomic and geopolitical forces the effects of which will not be readily mitigated – hope as much as many investors might.

“It’s not going back to an old normal,” observes Dee Smith, the founder, and CEO of Strategic Insight Group.

As he sees it, COVID-19 accelerated the ending of the globalization era and the beginning of a period marked by multipolarity. Dee joins Jacob Shapiro, the director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, to talk about how the world is turning as we enter 2023 and what it will take to survive and thrive.

Those with “an open mind, a willingness to turn on a dime, a psychological orientation towards agility” will prosper, according to Dee, “and the people who are disturbed by the change are going to have a harder time.” Recorded on November 16, 2022.

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#chinaeconomy #macro #chinanews

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Lifelong Learning Is Todd Edgar’s Key to Success



Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders.

Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest houses in investment banking.

In this episode of My Life In Four Trades, Todd shares the critical lessons he’s learned over nearly three decades in financial markets, explaining to Maggie Lake how “naïve optimism” helped shape his entrepreneurial mindset and why embracing lifelong learning is the key to success.

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#investingstrategy #tradingstrategy #wallstreet

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Is bad data now good news for stocks? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



In this episode of The Big Conversation, Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald examines the possible reasons for the pullback in commodity prices and asks whether an impending recession is the main driver. If that is the case, then why do we see such resilience in 2023 corporate earnings especially when other data, particularly housing data, is pointing to estimates being far lower. 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 

 

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About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv  

 

 

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The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance. 

 

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Raoul Pal & E. Mostaque: A Complete SHIFT in Society!



Emad Mostaque is democratizing #artificialintelligence

The hedge fund manager turned entrepreneur is the founder of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion, an image-generating algorithm that creates new, never-before-seen pictures.

It’s the most advanced technology in AI, and Emad is bringing it to the masses. In this mind-blowing conversation between two friends, Emad shows Raoul how quickly AI is progressing, what that progress means for our future, and why he chose to make Stable Diffusion an open source.

This type of technology should be available to everyone in the world, Emad believes, not just corporate tech giants. His vision is AI of, by, and for the people – and with that comes great opportunity. Recorded on Wednesday, October 12, 2022.

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TIMESTAMPS
1 Artificial Intelligence is the Focus 03:24
2 The Speed of Developments in Artificial Intelligence 06:07
3 Understanding Generative AI 0:12:53
4 The Intelligent Internet 0:29:55
5 This is the Start of a Complete Shift in Society 0:33:47
6 AI is Dangerous, but it’s Inevitable 0:44:13
7 Advancements in AI are Truly Exponential 0:48:49
8 The Takeaways 0:59:29

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

#ai #raoulpal

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

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Why You Need to Keep an Eye on Employment Numbers



“I think waiting until January,” explains Real Vision macro analyst Michael Coolbaugh, “you’re already behind the eight ball because institutions will start putting capital to work with whatever their views are.”

In the third episode of our miniseries on preparing for the year ahead, we pull back the curtain on the kinds of conversations we have during in-house editorial meetings, as Mike and his fellow macro analyst James Helliwell discuss the potential scenarios that will drive institutional money in 2023 and appropriate portfolio responses we can begin to implement right now. Recorded on November 17, 2022.

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#employment #tradingstrategy #investingtips

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You Can’t Control Events BUT You Can Profit From Them



Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades.

You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit.

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#trading #tradingstrategy #tradingeducation

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Is This the End of US Dominance?



Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been among the strongest currencies against the buck this year. Amid global upheaval unlike anything in recent memory, emerging markets have become much more attractive to investors.

Is this a durable trend in asset allocation? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, for a conversation about the convergence of deglobalization, inflation, and quantitative tightening and the emergence of emerging markets as we transition to a multipolar geopolitical-macroeconomic regime.

Follow Whitney on Twitter @TotemMacro. Recorded on November 23, 2022.

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#useconomy #tech #emergingmarkets

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Hugh Hendry: Let's Cut Through the Macro Chaos



Burdened by a monetary system grown too complex and wrongfooted by a seismic regime shift, many market participants now question Federal Reserve policymakers’ understanding of and ability to manage the macro landscape.

Their choices are limited, notes renowned macro investor Hugh Hendry, and it’s questionable whether central bankers even grasp the far-reaching implications of those choices. Hendry, in conversation with Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, explores structural inflation, global dollar funding, a Fed pivot, and more. Recorded on October 27, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS
1 The Fed and the Shortcomings of the Monetary System 01:05
2 Do You Believe Inflation Is Structural? 0:15:21
3 The Fed Is Jeopardizing Financial Repression 0:31:36
4 How Would You Trade a Fed Pivot? 0:43:10
5 Where Do Investors Go from Here? 0:57:02
6 The Takeaways 01:08:16

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#macro #macroeconomics #federalreserve

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold #recession #inflation #monetarypolicy

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Raoul Pal's TOP Trades of All Time (Part 1)



You’ve never gone as deep with Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal as you will in this special two-part episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Raoul talks to Maggie Lake about everything from his childhood in the U.K. to his early days in finance – and, of course, the most impressive trades of his career and what he learned from them.

Watch Part 2 here https://youtu.be/67Lq9YJJ1IE

TIMESTAMPS:
1 The Young Raoul Pal 01:15
2 Raoul’s First Trade 0:12:45
3 Raoul’s Secret Weapon 0:13:29
4 Raoul’s Second Trade 0:29:35
5 Don’t Impose Your Will on the Markets 0:34:20
6 Don’t Believe Your Shit Smells Like Roses 0:35:11
7 How to Bounce Back From a Big Loss 0:40:15

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#raoulpal #realvision #tradingstrategy

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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