Hugh Hendry: Let's Cut Through the Macro Chaos



Burdened by a monetary system grown too complex and wrongfooted by a seismic regime shift, many market participants now question Federal Reserve policymakers’ understanding of and ability to manage the macro landscape.

Their choices are limited, notes renowned macro investor Hugh Hendry, and it’s questionable whether central bankers even grasp the far-reaching implications of those choices. Hendry, in conversation with Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, explores structural inflation, global dollar funding, a Fed pivot, and more. Recorded on October 27, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS
1 The Fed and the Shortcomings of the Monetary System 01:05
2 Do You Believe Inflation Is Structural? 0:15:21
3 The Fed Is Jeopardizing Financial Repression 0:31:36
4 How Would You Trade a Fed Pivot? 0:43:10
5 Where Do Investors Go from Here? 0:57:02
6 The Takeaways 01:08:16

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#macro #macroeconomics #federalreserve

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold #recession #inflation #monetarypolicy

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"It's Time To Start Nibbling" Says Legendary Investor



Emerging Markets pioneer Mark Mobius believes a military conflict between China and Taiwan is the most worrying possibility on the macro landscape right now, but that’s not stopping him from picking up opportunities.

In his view, the strong U.S. dollar isn’t the ‘wrecking ball’ it’s been dubbed. He’s using a bottom-up approach and a long-term time horizon to spot companies that benefit from having a weaker currency.

He’s remarkably upbeat about India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey.

Even though he’s strong on digital payments, cryptocurrency is one asset class where he’s not a believer. “The price of a crypto is based on faith”, he says, and when people lose faith, “it becomes worthless”. Recorded on August 8th, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:35 It’s Time to Start Nibbling
00:01:55 You Can’t Paint Emerging Markets With a Broad Brush
00:04:58 Why Mobius Likes India
00:06:44 Whenever I Get Asked About Cryptocurrencies, I say I Don’t Like to Talk About Religion
00:14:15 The Dollar Wrecking Ball
00:18:46 We Will See Another Leg Down
00:21:10 A Conflict Between China and Taiwan is the Most Worrying Thing on the Macro Landscape
00:29:23 The Investment View on China
00:36:41 Why Mobius Likes Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey
00:47:18 Key Takeaways

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How Managing a Hedge Fund is Like Snowboarding



There are myriad ways to quantify risk. But investors, at times, struggle to even accept risk.

This lesson is one of many Todd Edgar, the chief investment officer of the Atreaus Family Office, has distilled from his multi-decade career in finance.

In conversation with Christian Alexander of Macro Link, Todd details his journey from working the slopes as a snowboarding instructor right out of college to moving on up at Tudor Investment to eventually founding his own hedge fund.

Todd and Christian also talk about why the durability of inflation may be underemphasized, whether the proliferation of recession narratives is actually “hopeful,” and whom Edgar prefers, Led Zeppelin or the Rolling Stones. Recorded on July 14, 2022.

#hedgefund #hedgefunds #riskmanagement

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The Land Of The Rising Yen?



The Japanese yen was the worst-performing major currency against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2022, as investors worldwide, from global macro hedge funds to Japanese retail day-traders, piled into an extremely crowded “hawkish Fed versus dovish BoJ policy divergence” trade: Short the yen.

July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting might have changed all that. Real Vision’s Tokyo-based global markets editor Weston Nakamura made a “long JPY” call heading into that FOMC meeting.

In a comprehensive follow-up commentary, Weston explains the mechanics behind the strongest rally in the yen since March 2020 by analyzing yen futures and options activity, shares additional details on shorting the euro against the yen, and forecasts yen action for the second half of the year.

See Weston’s Twitter thread from Friday, July 29, on the yen short squeeze, and follow him on Twitter @acrossthespread for real-time market commentary. Watch Weston’s previous video on the first half of 2022, “How the Bank of Japan Blew Up Markets in 2022,” here: https://youtu.be/_0a9DuqhVvU.

#financialmarkets #yen #currencies

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What Do Investors Need to Know About Small Caps?



What Do Investors Need to Know About Small Caps? Since the 1930s, small-cap stocks have outperformed inflation every single decade. It’s the only asset class to do so.

Now, with inflation giving rise to a new interest-rate regime, small caps could offer investors refuge and opportunity in these difficult and volatile markets, according to Francis Gannon.

Gannon is co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, a firm that’s specialized in small-cap investing since the early 1970s.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake, Gannon explains what investors need to know about this asset class and how small-cap stocks fit investor portfolios amid an economic slowdown.

#investors #investing #smallcapstocks

Recorded on June 22, 2022.

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