Is Inflation Cooling Fast Enough for the Fed?



The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly consumer survey showed expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 5.75% in August from 6.2% in July, as investors await Tuesday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for more clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about how the Federal Reserve will interpret recent inflation data in the broader global economic context. With stocks on the rise, yields on the decline, and the inflation genie seemingly on its way back into the bottle, are things really getting better? We also hear from Mike Novogratz, who was live at the SALT Conference in New York City, about opportunities that are sure to emerge over the next three to five years amid a shifting macro landscape.

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Is Inflation Cooling Fast Enough for the Fed?

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Inflation Is Still Super Hot



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The Nasdaq Composite led equity indexes to the downside, Bitcoin followed suit in the crypto market and the yield on the two-year U.S.

Treasury note spiked in the aftermath of this morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for August. Expectations-beating 8.3% annual and 0.1% monthly readings all but guarantee the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting next week.

The question is, is it time to talk about 100 basis points? And how do we position our portfolios should the Fed get even more hawkish? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and portfolio positioning in this environment.

We also hear from Peter Boockvar about the impact on company earnings of higher energy and other input costs. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Peter Boockvar here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. And we want to hear from you – please share your questions in the chat!

#inflation #Fed #monetarypolicy

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Inflation Is Still Super Hot

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What To Do at the Acceptance Stage of the Tightening Cycle



Markets achieved a relative calm today following yesterday’s steep sell-off, as investors continued to process hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index data and priced in expectations-meeting Producer Price Index data. What we have now, as Darius Dale sees it, is the transition from the Federal Reserve pushing back on “pivot” expectations to market participants accepting the implications of a single-mandate central bank: a downturn in the global liquidity cycle. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what that means for prices of risk assets, including equities, crude oil, and Bitcoin. The key question, of course, is this: Where can we hide from what appears to be an imminent bear-market rout? We also hear from Peter Boockvar about what a strong U.S. dollar means to various market constituents. Watch the complete conversation between Peter Boockvar and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. And be sure to share your questions in the chat!

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What To Do at the Acceptance Stage of the Tightening Cycle

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"Our Conviction Is Very High"



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U.S. equity indexes traded mixed Thursday, as investors priced in murky economic data and the reality that Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve shall not pivot from its inflation-fighting stance.

“We think the CPI report was very important for the market,” said Eric Johnston, the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald.

“It showed that inflation does not magically come down and you can’t get it under control with a soft landing, an unemployment rate below 4%, and the S&P 500 at 4,000.”

Eric joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why equities are holding up so well with global growth increasingly impaired and financial conditions more and more restrictive.

Eric and Andreas also discuss key levels for major asset classes and positioning dynamics amid the many prevailing global geopolitical-macroeconomic crosscurrents. We also hear from Jason Trennert about the structural factors that will keep inflation higher for longer.

Watch the full conversation featuring Jason Trennert and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3dfUHvY. And we want to hear from you too – please share your questions in the chat!

#financialmarkets #CPI #Fed

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“Our Conviction Is Very High”

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What Else Can Be Priced In?



FedEx withdrew forward earnings guidance and CEO Raj Subramaniam warned of a “worldwide recession” on Friday, sounding another “risk off” signal and sending all three major U.S. indexes to declines of at least 1% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how a “worldwide recession” would impact particular asset classes, with an emphasis on energy. Warren explains the structural factors that make high-quality names related to crude oil and natural gas potential outperformers – even in an environment of “dramatic disinflation.” We also have a preview of an upcoming My Life in 4 Trades podcast featuring Bill Browder, who talks about Vladimir Putin, what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and why it’s going to go on for some time longer. We also want to hear from you – please share your questions in the chat!

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What Else Can Be Priced In?

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Can the Fed Stick To Its Guns?



All three major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat at the halfway point of Monday’s trading session, with attention squarely focused on the outcome of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

As a 75-basis-point rate hike is a foregone conclusion, the main event will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Incoming data continue to suggest the economy is slowing, highlighted by a rapidly cooling housing market. Darius Dale, the founder, and CEO of 42 Macro joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to preview this week’s central bank action.

We also hear from Thomas Hoening, the longest-serving Fed president in U.S. history, about how risks posed by monetary tightening – i.e., rising unemployment – will test Powell’s resolve. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://rvtv.io/3qPyEQ3.

#jeromepowell #federalreserve #fed

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Can the Fed Stick To Its Guns?

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It’s a Busy Week for Central Bankers



The Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony, the founder and CEO of TG Macro, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action in key corners of the market, notably energy, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about what this week’s abundance of central bank activity means for financial markets and economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Weston Nakamura here: https://rvtv.io/3SmmDNU. And we want to hear from you too – please share your questions in the chat!

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It’s a Busy Week for Central Bankers

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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The Fed Feels It's Doing What's Required



The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market’s 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC’s “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX. And we want to hear from you too – please share your questions in the chat!

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The Fed Feels It’s Doing What’s Required

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Why the Forex Market Matters Right Now



Mere hours after the Federal Reserve announced a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-low interest rate policy and intervened in foreign-exchange markets on behalf of the Japanese yen for the first time since 1998. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the danger this policy divergence poses to the global financial system. Could we be on the verge of a currency war in reverse? Then, Andreas welcomes Tavi Costa, a partner and a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, to talk about how to position for what Tavi recently described as “a vicious stagflationary environment.” We also hear from Nancy Davis and Kris Sidial about how to hedge downside risk amid rising volatility. Watch the full conversation featuring Nancy and Kris here: https://f.io/gHuRgo0F. And we want to hear from you too – please share your questions in the chat!

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Why the Forex Market Matters Right Now

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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This Is About the Fed’s Volcker Worship



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With global markets on the edge and investors concerned about a multitude of extant financial and potential political headwinds, Maggie Lake welcomes back Raoul Pal for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing.

“Are markets breaking?” sounds hyperbolic. But U.K. debt is being re-priced as if it’s issued by something less than a third-world country. And foreign-exchange markets “are presently screaming global depression, not a recession,” as one prominent member of the FinTwit community put it.

Maggie and Raoul talk about the global liquidity situation and how the Federal Reserve will respond to another mess of its own making. Indeed, as Raoul noted early Friday, “The central bank experiment of Volcker worship in a massively indebted economy is on its last legs in the coming month or two.”

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This Is About the Fed’s Volcker Worship

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