Bulls vs. Bears: Who Wins This Epic Showdown?



U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday’s open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we’re now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed’s refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in Europe. Watch the full conversation featuring Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3PX0mEz.

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Bulls vs. Bears: Who Wins This Epic Showdown?

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Europe Just Doesn't Have the Power



Europe’s energy crisis is getting worse, stoking inflation as well as fear of “conflict and strife” on the continent. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to a 19-month low in August, as France accused Russia of using natural gas as a “weapon of war.” Recent price action suggests investors are pricing in the demand impact on energy markets. Still, with European policymakers desperately seeking long-term solutions, the nuclear option is back on the table. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the energy crisis in Europe, the policy choices that contributed to it, what can be done now to fix things for the future, and how we can trade it. We also hear from Mark Nelson about why nuclear power will save Europe. Watch the full video featuring Mark Nelson and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3cu9tiy.

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Europe Just Doesn’t Have the Power

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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How To Make Use of Volatility



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept it short and sour last Friday, and stocks have fallen in all four trading sessions since he re-announced his hawkishness with authority at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With traders pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in September, the path forward for the U.S. seems a little less fraught than the one facing Europe, where rationing and recession loom in consequence of the continent’s energy crisis. That’s with inflation rising to a fresh record in August and virtually goading the European Central Bank into its own major rate hike when it meets next week. Imran Lakh, the founder and CEO of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about volatility and how to trade it using options. We also hear from Dario Perkins about the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for bonds amid a time of historic uncertainty. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL.

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How To Make Use of Volatility

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Will the Fed Keep Interest Rates Higher for Longer?



Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next?

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Will the Fed Keep Interest Rates Higher for Longer?

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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What Kind of September Will It Be?



The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and turned red this afternoon, as investors appeared to abandon equities ahead of the long Labor Day weekend.

This morning’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report provided an initial lift on hope there was the foundation for a 50 as opposed to a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets September 20-21.

And then there’s the crude oil question – as in, is that critical commodity getting ready for another run higher? With the G-7 discussing a price cap on Russian oil, Vladimir Putin saying he won’t sell to nations that agree to it, and Saudi Arabia weighing production cuts, Maggie Lake welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about “black gold,” volatility, and things that could make what is, historically, the worst month for the stock market particularly catastrophic this year.

#downjones #financialmarkets #fomc

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What Kind of September Will It Be?

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Oil Slips Hard as Recession Risk Rises



Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony’s recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE.

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Oil Slips Hard as Recession Risk Rises

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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The Fed's Focus Is "Singular" Right Now



The Institute of Supply Management’s services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a process of pricing in or pricing out incremental tightening, as if there’s a spectrum of Fed activity,” explained Darius Dale in his daily note this morning. “But the Fed is waiting to achieve its signal before it does something different.” The Federal Reserve, according to Darius, is operating right now under a “singular” mandate, and that is to get inflation expectations re-anchored to its long-term 2% target. Darius, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about whether and when the Fed will respond to data other than inflation. We also get a sneak peak at Raoul Pal’s and Sam Bankman-Fried’s discussion about what’s happening in crypto and beyond these days. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3akrlLq. And be sure to catch Raoul’s conversation with SBF on Friday.

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The Fed’s Focus Is “Singular” Right Now

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This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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The Market Is Playing Tug of War With the Fed



On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path. The latter, particularly bond investors, are showing far greater concern about economic growth. Snider, the chief strategist for Atlas Financial and the co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast, notes that multiple indicators, including eurodollar futures, suggest the Federal Reserve has it all wrong. Recent data show global macro deterioration; combine that with tightening liquidity conditions, and, Jeff notes, we have an equation for rising deflation. Jeff joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about investors, central bankers, and their tug of war. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3RhivyR.

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The Market Is Playing Tug of War With the Fed

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Raoul Pal’s Take on the World



It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3asy4mL.

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Raoul Pal’s Take on the World

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Has the Fed Already Gone Too Far?



Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, through knock-on effects, draining even more liquidity from global markets. In his most recent note, Michael Howell reported that CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Index “is still testing a low reading of 29.5” within a range of 0 to 100. “Liquidity matters,” says Howell, CrossBorder Capital’s founder. He believes central banks are making another major error, this hammering too hard on the brake. “The world economy is now in a recession.” Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the developing “big liquidity squeeze” and the “world recession” he says is its cost. We also hear from Raoul Pal about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yUwdjU. Watch Friday’s full Daily Briefing episode featuring Raoul Pal and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3nVsvAs.

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Has the Fed Already Gone Too Far?

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