Juliette Declercq thinks the world’s largest economy can avoid recession.
When Juliette Declercq and Raoul Pal last spoke, Juliette, said the U.S. could avoid a deep recession.
That was back in May, and a lot’s changed. But she’s doubling down on her assessment of the American economy and her contrarian case in favor of a soft landing.
The U.S. economy is weaker but still not invalid. Rising real rates and historically rapid tightening of financial conditions have exacted a toll, but Juliette thinks that will rebalance when the Federal Reserve makes its pivot.
That means pausing the rate-hiking cycle, and Juliette sees it happening next quarter. She also identifies the assets that will benefit in the short term as her thesis plays out and explains why she’s always looking out for no more than two to three months.
TIMESTAMPS
1 Juliette’s Big Picture View 02:24
2 Still Looking for a Soft Landing in the U.S. 0:12:50
3 Juliette’s View on China & Currencies 0:23:33
4 What Happens in Europe? 0:30:34
5 Playing the Fed Pivot 0:40:03
6 The Takeaways 0:45:12
It’s a can’t-miss conversation. Recorded on November 11, 2022.
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