S&P 500 Outlook



Let’s provide an outlook on the #S&P500. Previously, we mentioned that Yellen issuing shorter duration than the market was expecting was short-term bullish for both stocks and bonds. The market has seen a nice move to the upside since then. Let’s now discuss what to watch for in the final months of the year.

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How to Position into the Fed Meeting



Stocks are relatively flat while treasury yields moved higher following an upside surprise in U.S. PPI this morning. Producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, above market forecasts of 0.2%. In today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Spectra Markets’ president Brent Donnelly to help us understand the latest inflation data and what it means for next week’s Federal funds rate announcement. Plus, Brent will share some insights on trader positioning from his firm’s 2023 Q1 consensus survey. Shocker… everybody’s bearish. We also hear Former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark on why we are looking at macro all wrong. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FELx7C We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in!

Editor’s Note: Our live chat feature remains unavailable as we upgrade our video player technology. We apologize for the temporary loss of function. But we assure you the upgrade will more than justify the wait. In the meantime, we will be monitoring the comments section. So, in addition to conversing with your fellow community members, please share your questions there.

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

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How to Position into the Fed Meeting

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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What Card Can the Fed Play Next?



On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Bilal Hafeez, the CEO of MacroHive, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a discussion on the upcoming Fed decision and what ripple effects it could have on the global economy. The market is pricing in a drop in inflation ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print, but will that signal a green light for investors?

Plus, we’ll also hear from expert Fed watcher Joseph Wang on why a recession won’t be as bad as many people think, and why inflation should be our main concern.

Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FmKPL9
We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions

#financialmarkets #macro #federalreserve

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What Card Can the Fed Play Next?

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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All Clear? Let s Hear from the Fed



Stocks surged this morning after cooler-than-expected inflation data showed that consumer prices in November rose at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% from the prior month and 7.1% year-over-year, down sharply from 7.7% YoY in October. But by noon ET, stocks erased all gains and now appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision. Is deflation starting to do some work for the Federal Reserve? Or will Fed Chair Jerome Powell & Co. keep hiking interest rates into a recession? On today’s Daily Briefing, Ash Bennington is joined by Real Vision senior markets editor Andreas Steno Larsen and Tony Greer of the Morning Navigator to discuss what various asset classes are signaling about inflation.

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

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All Clear? Let s Hear from the Fed

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Did Markets Shrug Off the BoJ Decision?



The yen slipped slightly today after surging almost 4% on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan surprisingly tweaked its yield curve control policy.

U.S. equities are up for the second straight day, providing a glimmer of hope for a better-than-expected earnings season. On today’s show, Andreas Steno Larsen is joined by the founder of 42 Macro, Darius Dale, to discuss where we are in the global liquidity cycle and what that means for his 2023 outlook. Andreas and Darius are fielding audience questions, so be sure to get yours in.

Plus, we’ll hear from Weston Nakamura on what everyone is missing in the BoJ’s hawkish turn. You can watch the entire breakdown here: https://rvtv.io/3YzHGAp

#BoJ #macro #Fed

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Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

About Real Vision™:
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Did Markets Shrug Off the BoJ Decision?

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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December's Stock Sell-Off Rages On



U.S. equities took another tumble on Thursday as the worst December for stocks since 2018 continues. Meanwhile, Asia markets rallied on some upbeat earnings and a strengthened yen. On today’s show, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, Jared Dillian, joins Maggie Lake to share how he’s deciphering the latest price action as we look ahead to the new year. Plus, we’ll hear from Weston Nakamura on why the Bank of Japan decided to tweak its yield curve control policy with only two meetings left in Governor Kuroda’s term. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3WCb335

We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in.

Editor’s Note: Our live chat feature continues to be unavailable as we upgrade our video player technology. We apologize for the temporary loss of function. But we assure you the upgrade will more than justify the wait. In the meantime, we will be monitoring the comments section. So, in addition to conversing with your fellow community members, please share your questions there.

#BoJ #macro #Fed

If you’ve been wondering what the hell to get people for Christmas… Here’s an idea, a Real Vision membership!
You can do exactly that: https://www.realvision.com/GiveAGift

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

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December’s Stock Sell-Off Rages On

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Closing the Book on 2022



Inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the European energy crisis and China’s zero-covid policy are just a few of the major stories that topped headlines this year. In our final show of 2022, Maggie Lake and Ash Bennington wrap up this rollercoaster of a year by looking back at some of the Daily Briefing’s moments to remember. THANK YOU to the Real Vision community for tuning in, sending feedback, asking questions, and engaging with us. We can’t wait to see you in 2023!

#BoJ #macro #Fed

If you’ve been wondering what the hell to get people for Christmas… Here’s an idea, a Real Vision membership!
You can do exactly that: https://www.realvision.com/GiveAGift

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

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Closing the Book on 2022

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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New Year, Same Energy Playbook?



The first trading day of 2023 is in the books and boy was it eventful. As warmer-than-average temperatures hold up across the globe, #naturalgas prices are falling off a cliff. At the time of this writing, natural gas futures are down 11.8%. Oil is down meaningfully as well. Meanwhile, U.S. #stocks gave up early morning gains, with Apple and Tesla leading to the downside.

We apologize for the technical issues that caused the interruption of Tony’s feed during today’s Daily Briefing. Although the audio & video does get distorted for just a moments, but is good throughout the rest of the show. And as always thank you for watching.

On today’s show, Tony and Andreas will discuss the macro dynamics that are driving this sell-off in energy and share how they’re playing the sector in the new year.

Plus, they’ll discuss why #ElonMusk has become a problem for the typical Tesla investor and take a look at what else you should keep an eye on in the months ahead. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in.

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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New Year, Same Energy Playbook?

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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The Fed Stays Strong: Higher Rates for Longer



Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates this year, according to the December FOMC minutes which were released Wednesday afternoon. Fed officials cited concern that inflation could prove “modestly persistent,” and said that higher rates for longer will be necessary to fight inflation. Officials agreed that rate cuts shouldn’t happen in 2023. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market’s response to this news, his view of inflation, and what it all means for global assets as we navigate the year ahead. Plus, we hear from Mish Schnieder of MarketGauge.com who gives us her opinion of where inflation will head in 2023. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3Z30tEi

We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in.

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

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The Fed Stays Strong: Higher Rates for Longer

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Melt up to Melt Down



U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market.

Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and editor of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what signals caused him to switch from calling for a “melt-up” to an “imminent crash” at the end of 2022, and where he believes market conditions are pointing next. Plus, we hear from David Higgins about the possibility of a 2023 recession and why it might last longer than many expect. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3Qg3OvV

We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in.

Thanks for watching The Daily Briefing. Sign up here with your email address to have every episode delivered to your inbox Monday-Friday: http://rvtv.io/DailyBriefEmail

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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Melt up to Melt Down

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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