Another Year, Another Commodities Super-Cycle?



**It’s the best of the year week here at Real Vision. Until 2023, we won’t be uploading new/updated pieces of content**

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Mish Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge.com, joins Maggie Lake to share her view of the most important macro drivers in the new year, where she’s targeting tradeable opportunities, and why investors will need to keep their heads on a swivel. Recorded on December 7, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:
1 What Is Your Macro Outlook Going into 2023? 00:50
2 Revisiting Mish’s “Modern Family” 07:00
3 Overview of Commodities for 2023 0:17:56
4 Where Will the Dollar Go Next? 0:29:13
5 Expectations for US Equities and Retail Investors in 2023 0:31:26
6 Thoughts on Volatility in 2023 0:38:24
7 Mish’s Individual Picks 0:42:13
8 Conclusion 0:48:34
9 The Takeaways 0:50:52

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#commodities #copper #gold #oil #gas #naturalgas

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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How Russia Blew a Big Hole in The Oil Market



Crude oil has slumped in recent weeks, as investors price in the potential impact of a global economic downturn on demand.

That’s the short term. Warren Pies is focused on the long term, and he’s sticking to his bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate and energy stocks. Pies, in conversation with Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says demand destruction is inevitable during a recession.

But what has and will take place is not sufficient to offset the deficit created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Moscow and its hydrocarbon exports.

Absent a change in the international community’s attitude, Warren sees crude oil reaching new all-time highs sooner rather than later. Recorded on July 5, 2022.

#crudeoil #recession #hydrocarbon

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Will a Fed Pivot Pump Prices? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the rising expectation of a pivot from the Fed. Growth indicators are rolling over and many in the market want the Fed to support growth and abandon its fight against rising prices. But, if the Fed pivots too soon, it could lead to another painful leg higher in inflation, which would require yet another repricing of interest rates in order for policymakers to bring it under control. In the Chatter, LSEG’s Wayne Bryan looks at the European Energy crisis which could see Europe flirting with recession for the rest of the year and beyond.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

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Future Prices: How Prepared Is Europe For The Winter?



If people in Europe don’t reduce their energy consumption this winter, companies will have to – and that means a big spike in unemployment, according to Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Switzerland-based commodity investment firm Burggraben Holding AG.

Stahel says Russia’s reported maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline is just an excuse to stop supplying Europe, and the consequences of that action will be severe.

In conversation with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen, Stahel explains why the continent is ill-prepared for Vladimir Putin’s energy brinkmanship and outlines the steps it should take, including restoring nuclear energy capabilities, to counter his belligerence. Recorded on July 14, 2022.

Be sure to check out Stahel’s full report, including slides not featured in the interview, in our Reports section on our website.

#energymarket #energysector #europe

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Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Is a Rally Bad for Investors? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at market positioning around a potential Fed pivot. With a strong rally in risk assets following the July FOMC meeting, the market seems to be pricing slower growth – and potentially lower inflation – which could lead an increasingly data-dependent Fed to curtail its rate hikes. In the Chatter, in light of the darkening macroeconomic outlook perhaps the worst is yet to come, and Q3 could provide a better representation of the trends in consumer spending.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu
Become a member of Real Vision — get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership

About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

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Will There Be Enough Energy for Europe This Winter?



European energy markets have been relatively quiet the past several weeks, at the same time the continent is enjoying an unusually warm fall.

With natural gas prices down almost 70% from their August peak and storage capacity throughout the EU nearly maxed out, is the worst of the crisis behind us?

As Real Vision Senior Markets Editor Andreas Steno Larsen sees it, this is only the beginning.

As he recently tweeted, “The bottom is close to being in” for natural gas. In conversation with Maggie Lake, Andreas assesses recent data on natural gas storage, flows, and consumption patterns in Europe and reaches a stark conclusion: Markets are now too complacent. Recorded on October 31, 2022.

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#energycrisis #europenews #europeanunion

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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive, or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual, group of individuals, or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Note this video is intended to be informative of the process only, and not investment advice or encouragement to invest at all. If you find this, or any other content to be an interesting investment opportunity, as always, do you own research.

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How Russia Blew a Big Hole in The Oil Market



Crude oil has slumped in recent weeks, as investors price in the potential impact of a global economic downturn on demand.

That’s the short term. Warren Pies is focused on the long term, and he’s sticking to his bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate and energy stocks. Pies, in conversation with Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says demand destruction is inevitable during a recession.

But what has and will take place is not sufficient to offset the deficit created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Moscow and its hydrocarbon exports.

Absent a change in the international community’s attitude, Warren sees crude oil reaching new all-time highs sooner rather than later. Recorded on July 5, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:50 The Bull Case for Oil
00:09:51 Russian Sanctions and the Supply Deficit
00:15:38 Oil Price Outlook if We Enter Recession
00:18:45 President Biden’s Criticism of Big Oil
00:24:05 Back to New All-Time Highs?
00:25:44 Energy Stocks to Buy and Avoid
00:32:14 Reaching Peak Oil Demand

#crudeoil #recession #hydrocarbon

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold

Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so there is no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors, agents, suppliers, and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard for any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency, or other investment instruments. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances are not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well, that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that – now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

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Europe’s Energy Crisis



This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Chainalysis and FTX US.

European energy markets have been roiled as the price of energy futures rockets to up to 30 times the five-year average. In the U.K., restrictions on the cost of energy have been lifted, increasing prices by two to five times overnight. Across Europe, governments are considering radical interventions. NLW breaks down what’s going on with the European energy crisis.

Nexo is a security-first platform where you can buy, exchange and borrow against your crypto. The company safeguards your crypto by relying on five key fundamentals including real-time auditing and insurance on custodial assets. Learn more at nexo.io.

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I.D.E.A.S. 2022 by CoinDesk facilitates capital flow and market growth by connecting the digital economy with traditional finance through the presenter’s mainstage, capital allocation meeting rooms and sponsor expo floor. Use code BREAKDOWN20 for 20% off the General Pass. Learn more and register at coindesk.com/ideas.

“The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and research by Scott Hill. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. Music behind our sponsors today is “The Now” by Aaron Sprinkle and “The Life We Had” by Moments. Image credit: SEAN GLADWELL/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

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