Real Estate Outlook



Let’s jump into the real estate verse and talk about what is happening! I’m not well-versed in real estate at all, but perhaps going through some of the charts is a good place to start!

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30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Soar Higher



Thanks for jumping into the realestateverse! In this video we talk about 15 and 30 year fixed-rate mortgages, look at the weekly change, and make comparisons to prior occurrences. Interestingly, we can find a similar pattern in the early 1980s when inflation was also high. We make comparisons to the S&P 500 bear market in the 1980s to the one we are experiencing today. What do you think of this analysis? Let me know in the comments!

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The First Signs of Demand Destruction? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether recent weakness in some commodities are signs that demand destruction is starting to appear. Copper has been breaking down and crude oil has pulled back from the highs, but are financial conditions yet tight enough to bring inflation under control? An additional risk is the uncertainty around the Bank of Japan, which appears to have supercharged its loose monetary policy. Is that sustainable? Each time that risk assets rally, financial conditions ease, increasing the potential for inflation to remain untamed and for the Fed to get more aggressive again.

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About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

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Chinese Bank Runs: Why You NEED To Pay Attention To This!!



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~~~~~~

📺 Useful Vids 📺

Evergrande Blowup 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5g46Nk4PuM
Fake GDP Numbers 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jO1G4CNse8
Supply Chains 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5RPwo0dlek

~~~~~~

⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️

Twitter Thread on Crisis: https://twitter.com/liqian_ren/status/1536556062656061440
Codes Turn Red: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/15/china/china-zhengzhou-bank-fraud-health-code-protest-intl-hnk/index.html
What’s Behind The Runs: https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/what-s-behind-the-chinese-bank-runs-20220711-p5b0mj
Rural Bank Runs: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3179730/cash-crisis-amid-chinas-stalling-economy-rural-banks-freeze
Mortgage Strike: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/china-convenes-banks-on-mortgage-boycott-that-s-roiling-markets
China Credit Crunch: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/china-credit-2022-07/
China GDP Numbers: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/14/economy/china-q2-gdp-2022-intl-hnk/index.html

~~~~~~

– TIMESTAMPS –
0:00 Intro
0:42 What Bank Runs?
5:17 The Protests Start
8:41 The Protests Grow
11:37 China’s Economic Problems
14:51 Mortgage Strikes
18:10 Conclusion

~~~~~~~

📜 Disclaimer 📜

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.

#China #BankRuns #Crisis #GDP #Economics

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Real Estate Outlook (A Discussion With Jordan Wirsz)



0:00 – Collaboration Series Continues
0:15 – Jordan Wirsz Intro
0:57 – Real Estate Outlook
5:45 – Real Cycles
11:58 – Real Deals
16:40 – Real Data
22:45 – Interesting Rates
29:39 – Rent Crash Own
35:15 – North Idaho Wars
40:50 – Real Estate Signs
54:08 – Closing Thoughts
56:36 – Outro

It is time to continue with our collaboration series! However, this time we find ourselves venturing out of the cryptoverse and into the real estate verse. We bring on an expert in real estate, Jordan Wirsz, who has a ton of experience in the real estate market. Jordan talks us through the state of the current real estate market, where we are likely heading over the next few years, and opportunities that may arise.

Subscribe to Jordan:
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How Low Can Equities Go? | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv



This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best-in-class data to look at whether recent weakness in equity markets could have further to go amidst signs of an economic slowdown. Although regional manufacturing surveys are rolling over, there are mixed signals coming from other important indicators which suggest the outlook might not be quite so bleak, as guest Charles Van Vleet explains. Earnings estimates may have further to fall, but Charles believes that it won’t be a repeat of previous crises given things like favourable debt service ratios supporting the consumer.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu
Become a member of Real Vision — get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership

About Refinitiv: For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub – http://refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community – driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. https://www.refinitiv.com We invite you to join Refinitiv’s social media communities: http://linkedin.com/company/refinitiv http://twitter.com/refinitiv http://www.instagram.com/refinitiv http://www.facebook.com/refinitiv

About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today’s markets. (Think of it like TED Talks for Finance.). Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.

Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

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Housing Bubble COLLAPSING?! What You NEED To Watch!!



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~~~~~~

📺 Useful Vids 📺

Recession 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYPb9ebUQbs
What Drives Crypto 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGXJSVV52WY

~~~~~~

⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️

Fed Dallas Paper: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0329
Fed Paper International Markets: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0928
Unit Root Stats Methodology: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2020/0383r1.pdf
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/2021/global-real-estate-bubble-index.html
Bloomberg Bubble Index: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/world-s-most-bubbly-housing-markets-flash-2008-style-warnings
Increase in ARM Issuance US: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/adjustable-rate-mortgages-interest-rates-home-prices/
New Zealand Housing Crisis: https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/02/12/new-zealands-housing-crisis-is-worsening
New Zealand Debt: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128396590/world-watching-nz-housing-market-as-auckland-labelled-canary-in-coal-mine
Canada Risks: https://www.businessinsider.com/canada-housing-bubble-a-cautionary-tale-us-real-estate-market-2022-4
Canada ARM Issuance: https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/canadian-home-buyers-pile-into-variable-loans-blunting-impact-of-rising-fixed-rates

~~~~~~

– TIMESTAMPS –
0:00 Intro
2:10 Fundamental Drivers
6:12 Bubbly Territory
9:59 Changing Tides
12:43 No Subprime
15:32 Kiwi Concerns
18:22 Canuck Concerns
21:57 Conclusion

~~~~~~~

📜 Disclaimer 📜

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.

#Housing #Property #Bubble #stocks

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