How Russia Blew a Big Hole in The Oil Market



Crude oil has slumped in recent weeks, as investors price in the potential impact of a global economic downturn on demand.

That’s the short term. Warren Pies is focused on the long term, and he’s sticking to his bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate and energy stocks. Pies, in conversation with Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says demand destruction is inevitable during a recession.

But what has and will take place is not sufficient to offset the deficit created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Moscow and its hydrocarbon exports.

Absent a change in the international community’s attitude, Warren sees crude oil reaching new all-time highs sooner rather than later. Recorded on July 5, 2022.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:50 The Bull Case for Oil
00:09:51 Russian Sanctions and the Supply Deficit
00:15:38 Oil Price Outlook if We Enter Recession
00:18:45 President Biden’s Criticism of Big Oil
00:24:05 Back to New All-Time Highs?
00:25:44 Energy Stocks to Buy and Avoid
00:32:14 Reaching Peak Oil Demand

#crudeoil #recession #hydrocarbon

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Tales From The Trading Desk



Dave Floyd describes himself as someone whose “temperament and personality are still wired toward short-term price movements.”

In other words, he’s a trader. Floyd, the founder of Aspen Trading Group, joins Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to explain what that title means to him.

Dave and Jared swap tales from trading desks of the mid-1990s through the 2000s, sharing lessons along the way about specializing in certain asset classes, establishing discipline, and developing a mentality of success.

Recorded on June 8, 2022.

#trader #tradingstrategy #tradingmentor

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Does the Federal Reserve See the Threat of Recession?



Most central banks are moving aggressively to neutralize runaway inflation, a “bogey” world leaders must eliminate.

As Michael Howell points out, though, “Otherworld economies are already in recession,” and the U.S. will quickly follow suit. In conversation with Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, Howell, the CEO of Crossborder Capital, paints a bleak picture.

“The next six months are going to be pretty ugly” as liquidity conditions continue to deteriorate and economic data continue to disappoint.

Michael and Jared also talk about why Federal Reserve policy probably won’t change much until early 2023, what’s made the Japanese yen weaken so drastically, and how the European Central Bank’s recent moves reintroduce “fragmentation” risk for the European Union.

Recorded on June 13, 2022.

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#federalreserve #monetarypolicy #recession

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