CPI Report



The CPI consists of eight major components, each representing a different category of consumer spending. Each of these categories is assigned a weight by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) based on its importance to the average consumer’s spending habits. This weight determines how much each category contributes to the commonly known headline inflation. The eight components with their weights as of February 2023 are:

Food and Beverages (14.3%): the cost of food items such as meat, poultry, fish, eggs, dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, as well as non-alcoholic beverages.

Housing (44.4%): The cost of renting or owning a home, including rent, mortgage payments, and property taxes.

Apparel (2.6%): The cost of clothing and footwear for men, women, and children.

Transportation (16.8%): The cost of purchasing and maintaining a vehicle, as well as the cost of public transportation, such as buses, trains, and airplanes.

Medical care (8.0%): The cost of medical services, prescription drugs, and health insurance premiums.

Recreation (5.4%): The cost of entertainment, such as movie tickets, sporting events, and recreational equipment.

Education and communication (5.8%): The cost of tuition, books, and supplies for education, as well as communication services, such as telephone and internet.

Other goods and services (2.7%): This category includes a wide range of goods and services, including personal care products, household goods, and services such as legal and financial advice.

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Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions



During a period where many of us have decided to become armchair economists (myself included), I thought it would be somewhat useful to dive into some larger trends shaping in the current macroeconomic landscape. We can see some inversions on the yield curve, inflation remains high, and the #Fed will likely have to continue raising rates into a slowing economy due to rampant #inflation. Of course anything can happen, but the outlook on some of these metrics can be useful in navigating these market conditions.

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Upcoming FOMC: Hawkish or Dovish?



The next FOMC by the Federal Reserve is coming up on November 2nd. The #Fed of course will be watched closely to identify if there has been any change in their ongoing policies. In this video we talk about the likelihood of various interest rate hikes, and compare that to #inflation data. How high do you think the #Fed will raise interest rates? Let me know in the comments!

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Core Inflation Accelerates



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Core CPI accelerates higher and headline CPI came in higher than expected. Now that markets are pricing (with a low probability) a 100 bps rate hike, markets are reacting. In this video we talk about #inflation, the #Fed, and risk assets like #Bitcoin and #stocks.

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Bitcoin and Inflation Data Inbound



We are about to receive headline CPI and core CPI numbers, and where they come in is likely to have an immediate effect on risk assets. Will both core and headline inflation surprise to the upside or downside? Or will they both come in more or less where the consensus estimates are predicting they will? Let me know what you think in the comments!

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