One of the best-connected bond traders in the world explains what happened in the U.K. and why it’s important.
Central banks, with a few notable exceptions, are hitting markets with a brutal combination of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction to fight inflation. But, as the recent mini-crisis in the U.K. makes clear, there will be unintended consequences.
George Whitehead of Astor Ridge – “one of the top sell-side gilt traders in the world” – joins guest host Larry McDonald of Bear Traps Report to talk about the historic price action we’ve witnessed in the global bond market during the past several weeks.
As Larry notes, George saw early signs of a potential meltdown in U.K. pension funds two weeks before the Bank of England was forced to pivot from its own hawkish path.
The problem monetary policymakers face is that inflation is coming or will come down – but slowly. This tightening of financial conditions is happening very fast. Something is going to break.
But will it be the economy? Or will central banks relent? Recorded on October 6, 2022.
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TIMESTAMPS
1 The Godfather of Gilts 00:00
2 Understanding What Happened With the U.K. Pension Funds 06:46
3 The Problem with Politics 0:12:06
4 Fiscal & Monetary Pressures in the U.K. 0:17:10
5 Connecting the Dots and What it Means for Global Central Banks 0:24:30
6 The Takeaways 0:31:19
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