A Self Inflicted Crisis w/ Campbell Harvey



A “prolonged period” of zero or negative interest rates is going to “lead to distortions,” according to Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University famous for his theory that yield-curve inversions precede recessions, and that’s exactly what investors are dealing with right now.

The title of Professor Harvey’s new paper, with co-author Rob Arnott, cuts right to the point: “No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession.”

The Federal Reserve is playing catch-up, and it knows full well that aggressive rate-hiking will push the economy into recession. It’s a “blunt instrument.”

But Professor Harvey is not one to leave not-well enough alone: “Surely there are alternatives that could be considered.”

He shares his ideas on a different approach to central banking and his thoughts on managing risk in such an environment with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington.

You can click here to read Professor Harvey’s and Rob Arnott’s new paper on the coming recession. Recorded on July 15th, 2022.

#monetarypolicy #federalreserve #fed

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Piecing Together the Puzzle of the Federal Reserve



Jerome Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s steadfast commitment to raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet.

But investors are increasingly skeptical that the central bank can stay the course in the face of a slowing economy.

Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Scylla of inflation, the Charybdis of recession, and the possibility the Fed has no way out of this dilemma.

Krishnan notes that there are critical time-lag differentials between Fed actions to control inflation and Fed actions to stimulate growth.

And that makes a sharper economic downturn more likely, even with a pause in the Fed’s tightening program, as fed funds futures markets are currently signaling. Recorded on June 27, 2022.

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#monetarypolicy #federalreserve #inflation

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