We’ve already seen trillions of market capitalization vaporized in 2022, as central bankers around the world have raised policy interest rates and shrunk balance sheets to bring down inflation from 40-year highs.
Now, the impact of tighter money is showing up in key leading indicators of the business cycle showing a potential recession on the horizon. And that raises the gloomy prospect of stagflation – slow-to-no growth, still-sticky inflation.
The Federal Reserve remains committed to restoring price stability. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at data dependence. So, does a weaker-than-expected October Consumer Price Index print increase the probability of a “pivot”? Equity indexes suggest “yes,” though the consensus may be too quick to overlook a third scenario where inflation and interest rates plateau rather than plummet.
In this episode of Make of Break, Societe Generale’s Global Head of Economics Kokou Agbo-Bloua joins Real Vision’s James Helliwell to consider the anti-consensus view on inflation and to share his framework for asset allocation in 2023 and beyond.
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